Recruits: Making it isn't easy

So, if a school signs 25 football recruits, when it's all said and done, how many will have actually contributed as a starter or played significant minutes? How many actually show up or drop out, transfer to another school, or blow out a knee or have a season-ending neck injury?

Just what is the magic number of recruits who'll actually make it? Make it is defined as getting on the field and consistently and regularly getting a uniform dirty.

Well, it depends on the program. It depends on the risk-to-reward philosophy. Some of it might be luck in a game of recruiting that is far from an exact science.

I'd say the number is around 16 to 18.

Former University of California coach Tom Holmoe, now the athletic director at BYU, says it all depends. But if you put Holmoe's hands in a vise, squeeze real hard and demand that a specific number pop out of his mouth, he'd guess 15.

If so, that means approximately 60 percent of a recruiting class produces noteworthy, productive players.

Who can forget BYU's mystery recruits of a few years ago, Eddie Scipio and Walt Williams, who never showed up in Provo? Utah had highly rated California QB Josh Portis committed in the fall of 2004 until Urban Meyer took him to Florida, where he subsequently transferred to Maryland after Meyer signed Tim Tebow.

Utah and BYU probably hover around Holmoe's 15. The Utes and Cougars approach recruiting with different philosophies, and both succeed within their own realm.

The Utes rely a lot on local recruits but like a blend of what could be labeled as players on the cusp of getting into a Pac-10 school, and they don't mind, like many BCS schools, following a prospect deep into the process who may not qualify.

BYU also relies on the local scene, searches out prospects nationally with LDS ties and will go after a national non-LDS blue chipper who qualifies with its complicated matrix. BYU is not immune to taking the hand of a risky non-qualifier into February signing, but it is the exception, not the rule.

The new NCAA Academic Progress Report has really kept many recruiters from signing academic risks. Once on campus, receiving financial aid, their progress toward graduation, or lack there of, can seriously impact schools.