From Deseret News archives:
Avian flu pandemic still possible, experts say
As the illness receded, the scary headlines with their warnings of a pandemic that could kill 150 million people all but vanished.
But avian flu has not gone away. Nor has it become less lethal or less widespread in birds. Experts argue that preparations against it have to continue, even if the virus' failure to mutate into a pandemic strain has given the world more breathing room.
There were 86 confirmed human cases last year compared with 115 in 2006, according to the World Health Organization, and 59 deaths compared with 79. Experts assume that the real numbers are several times larger, because many cases are missed, but that is still a far cry from a pandemic.
Dr. David Nabarro, the senior U.N. coordinator for human and avian flu, recently conceded that he worried somewhat less than he did three years ago. "Not because I think the threat has changed," he quickly added, but because the response to it has gotten so much better."
In the worst-hit countries all poor laboratories have become faster at flu tests. Government veterinarians now move more quickly to cull infected chickens. Hospitals have wards for suspect patients, and epidemiologists trace contacts and treat all with Tamiflu a tactic meant to encircle and snuff outbreaks before the virus can adapt itself to humans.
Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organization for Animal Health, recently called the virus "extremely stable" and, thus, less likely to mutate into a pandemic form. Many prominent virologists would vehemently disagree. But others who argued three years ago that H5N1 would not "go pandemic" are feeling a bit smug.
Dr. Paul A. Offit, a vaccine specialist at Children's Hospital in Philadelphia, was one of those who, he jokes, "dared to be stupid" by bucking the alarmist trend in 2005.
"H5 viruses have been around for 100 years and never caused a pandemic and probably never will," he said.
Comments
- Dixie campus briefs 1:10 a.m.
- Westminster campus briefs 1:09 a.m.
- UVU campus briefs 1:07 a.m.
- Utah Utes campus briefs 1:07 a.m.
- Visit to paradise nightmarish for Ags 12:32 a.m.
- Utes struggling to shake starts 12:31 a.m.
- Cougars' execution flawless 12:30 a.m.
- Utah Jazz fall apart against Kings 12:17 a.m.
- 3A football: Tigers pull away 12:12 a.m.
- Editorial: 'Immigrant' children needy 12:12 a.m.
- Gay advocates trek to LDS office
207 - Dirk does dirty work in Dallas
190 - Lobo suspended
171 - Speed has never been BYU's game
136 - Cougars crush hapless Cowboys
128 - House passes health care bill
111 - RSL rallies to advance
102 - Prep football: San Juan vs. S. Sevier
102 - Thousands protest health bill
100 - Provo company innovating engines
98
Why do so many people live so close to refineries in Utah and elsewhere?
Nothing proposed would keep young adults from learning of the reality of sex,...
the only "decent" team we played we lost to? I guess that Air Force isn't a...
I am watching the game again, and it is awesome!!!
I can't help but laugh inside when I read comments from YBU/TCU fans who...
(from the independant) I like Dennis Miller.... and Bill Maher, although I...
As a BYU alumnus, I can't justify to myself ever donating another dollar to...
Not a chance. Don't get me wrong they are both studs, but if Asiata wasn't...
Titan Fan, sorry that some of your best players got hurt. I hope they...
So sad how fear based so many are.
Will the Jazz even make the playoffs this year. The way they are playing it...


You can be the first to comment on this story.