From Deseret News archives:

'Energy independence' is a ludicrous myth

Published: Sunday, Jan. 20, 2008 9:27 a.m. MST
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So biofuels alone cannot wean the United States off oil. Let's say the country converted all the soybeans grown by American farmers into biodiesel; that would provide only about 1.5 percent of total annual U.S. oil needs. If the entire U.S. corn crop was devoted to producing ethanol, it would supply only about 6 percent of U.S. oil needs.

What about cellulosic ethanol, the much-hyped biofuel that can be produced from grass, wood and other plant sources? Its commercial viability is a bit like the tooth fairy: Many believe in it, but no one ever actually sees it. Even with heavy federal subsidies, it took 13 years before the corn-ethanol sector was able to produce 1 billion gallons of fuel per year. Two and a half decades elapsed before annual corn-ethanol production reached 5 billion gallons, as it did in 2006. But now Congress is demanding that the cellulosic-ethanol business magically produce many times that volume of fuel in just 15 years. It won't happen.

3. Energy independence will let America choke off the flow of money to nasty countries.

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Fans of energy independence argue that if the United States stops buying foreign energy, it will deny funds to petro-states such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. But the world marketplace doesn't work like that. Oil is a global commodity. Its price is set globally, not locally. Oil buyers are always seeking the lowest-cost supplier. So any Saudi crude being loaded at the Red Sea port of Yanbu that doesn't get purchased by a refinery in Corpus Christi or Houston will instead wind up in Singapore or Shanghai.

4. Energy independence will mean reform in the Muslim world.

The most vocal proponent is New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who argues that the United States should build "a wall of energy independence" around itself and thereby lower global oil prices: "Shrink the oil revenue and they will have to open up their economies and their schools and liberate their women so that their people can compete. It is that simple." When the petro-states are effectively bankrupt, Friedman argues, we'll see "political and economic reform from Algeria to Iran."

If only it were that easy. Between about 1986 and 2000, oil prices generally stayed below $20 per barrel; by the end of 1998, they were as low as $11 per barrel. As Alan Reynolds pointed out in May 2005 in the conservative National Review Online, this prolonged period of "cheap oil did nothing to promote economic or political liberty in Algeria, Iran or anywhere else. This theory has been tested — and it failed completely."

5. Energy independence will mean a more secure U.S. energy supply.

Think back to 2005: After hurricanes ravaged the Gulf Coast, chewing up refineries as they went, several southeastern U.S. cities were hit with gasoline shortages. Thankfully, they were short-lived. The reason? Imported gasoline, from refineries in Venezuela, the Netherlands and elsewhere. Throughout the first nine months of 2005, the United States imported about 1 million barrels of gasoline per day. By mid-October 2005, just six weeks after Hurricane Katrina, those imports soared to 1.5 million barrels per day.

So we're woven in with the rest of the world — and going to stay that way. Today, in addition to gasoline imports, the United States is buying crude oil from Angola, jet fuel from South Korea, natural gas from Trinidad, coal from Colombia and uranium from Australia. Those imports show that the global energy market is just that: global. Anyone who argues that the United States will be more secure by going it alone on energy hasn't done the homework.


Robert Bryce, a fellow at the Institute for Energy Research, is author of the forthcoming "Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of 'Energy Independence."'

Recent comments

The editorial makes valid points that some of the hyped "solutions"...

Sensible Scientist | Jan. 20, 2008 at 5:47 p.m.

Well actually energy independence is possible. Sixty five percent of...

Lew Jeppson | Jan. 20, 2008 at 12:47 p.m.

Energy independence IS possible. Take nuclear, aboout 1% of uranium...

Anonymous | Jan. 20, 2008 at 12:43 p.m.

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