Utah economy slows; recession is possible
The state's year-over-year job growth rate slipped 0.3 percent to 3.6 percent as the state added about 44,800 jobs during that time. Utah's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate grew to 3.2 percent up 0.6 percent from a year earlier and 0.4 percent from November's level. About 43,700 Utahns were unemployed in December, compared to 34,000 a year earlier, according to numbers released Tuesday by the Utah Department of Workforce Services.
"It is more movement in these numbers than we've seen in quite a while," said Mark Knold, chief economist for the department.
"We have been predicting a slowdown, and it's there," he said. "We've been saying it's going to slow. It's just the evidence is getting a little stronger here in December."
Even so, Utah's job-growth and unemployment figures in December were far better than the national numbers of a 0.9 percent job-growth rate and 5.0 percent unemployment rate.
"We are heads and tails above what's going on with the rest of the national economy," Knold said. "We have been the top (job-growth) state in the nation for about a year now, but I think we're probably going to slide out of that chair here pretty soon."
The December rate of 3.6 percent compares with a long-term average of 3.3 percent per year since 1950 and translates to about 3,700 jobs being added monthly over the past year.
A sore spot was construction, which had a bump in unemployment claims in December.
"Construction definitely lets people go this time of year. That's a normal thing," Knold said. "What might have been abnormal was last year (December 2006), when they didn't let people go."
Truck drivers, heavy tractor-trailer drivers and structural iron and steel workers also were among those filing unemployment claims.
The slipping job-growth rate and higher unemployment rate are not at worrisome levels, he said, but they could get to that point if the subprime troubles spilled beyond the construction, mortgage and title industries to manufacturing and other industries that are "aloof" from housing, such as the information sector or leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services.
"When you see noticeable economic weakness in industries away from the construction-related stuff, that's when I'd say, hey, this has gotten to be a bigger problem than just this subprime thing. It's not being isolated," Knold said.
As for a national recession, the third-quarter gross domestic product figure, the most recent data available, continued to show growth, while a technical definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP numbers.
"Recession is definitely a possibility, but the most recent number doesn't show us moving in that direction," Knold said. "It would have to be a very strong and rapid reversal of the number we've just seen that would put the United States into a recessionary period. But it can feel like a recession without the numbers officially being in one."
E-mail: bwallace@desnews.com
Recent comments
Just a technical point: two quarters of GDP decline is just a rule of...
Mike | Jan. 17, 2008 at 4:04 p.m.
Only good news is bad news. Why? Because it sells papers! (or ads...
News Business | Jan. 16, 2008 at 10:14 p.m.
CJ:
Utah LAGS the country in almost every possible measure - from...
utahfarfromimmune | Jan. 16, 2008 at 6:45 p.m.
- Funds for new courthouse approved 1:48 a.m.
- Godfrey vetoes Ogden budget 1:48 a.m.
- Odd Fellows Hall move 1:47 a.m.
- 2 country groups to perform 1:47 a.m.
- Rumor has Boozer with Bulls 1:20 a.m.
- Jazz in back of line for free agents 1:19 a.m.
- Okur signs two-year extension 1:18 a.m.
- Marion to Mavs, Stackhouse to Griz 1:16 a.m.
- Price for redistricting plan challenged 1:04 a.m.
- Basketball campers learn service 1:02 a.m.
- Rumor has Boozer with Bulls
- Stadium of Fire flag burning was fake
- Jazz in back of line for free agents
- Okur signs two-year extension
- Restaurant destroyed by fire
- Jazz won't meet Lopez on Europe trip
- A primer for the 6th Potter film
- Blazers may offer Millsap a contract
- AK will not play for Russia this summer
- MWC, WAC rushed into BCS
- Bronco collecting a galaxy of recruits
138 - Letters: Palin mistreated
136 - Teachers struggle with district cuts
134 - Blazers may offer Millsap a contract
122 - Rumor has Boozer with Bulls
82 - Fairness of BCS debated
81 - Moon landing: Let's hear from you
73 - Chaffetz eyes challenging Bennett
72 - Services bids farewell to Jackson
70 - Letters: Time for a revolution
69
Through the years, I've always raised eyebrows whenever I tell people...
The photographs are mysterious, brooding, dark. They show dimples and...
Blazers get the unbalanced trade they seek while not signing Millsap away...
Ricky Bobby - THE JAZZ DO NOT WANT TO TAKE BACK EQUAL SALARIES. They want to...
Despite the fact that logging has all but stopped in the pacific northwest...
My understanding of what FAIR is trying to do, is to provide well thought out...
Jazz will resign Milsap. If they don't it will be ahuge mistake. First off,...
I was waiting for it to be burned on the big metal structure right by the...
Hey Ute fan... the Utes had a good season. And keep throwing that BCS bowl...
Tyrus Thomas is in the last year of his contract too so what is the point for...
CougarKeith, people don't know how to properly retire the flag, what they did...
It is just talk but since it was brought up: IF we can get Prizbilla &...


