If recent population estimates are any indication, Utah is still on track to gain a fourth congressional seat after the 2010 Census.

"The fourth (seat) is a cinch unless there's a mass exodus from the state," said Pam Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah.

If congressional reapportionment were done based on 2007 population, Utah, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada would all gain a seat and Texas would gain two, according to a recent analysis of census population estimates by Election Data Services.

The analysis shows Louisiana, which has yet to regain the population lost after Hurricane Katri-na, would lose a seat, as would Iowa, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Recent census estimates rank Utah third in population growth behind Arizona and Nevada, which are also in line to gain congressional seats. The census estimate places Utah's population at 2,645,330, which is lower than the 2,699,554 estimated by the Utah Population Estimates Committee.

Utah, which narrowly lost out on a fourth seat after the 2000 Census, has been on track for the fourth seat since 2002, said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services.

With the exception of Louisiana, which before Katrina had not been expected to lose a seat, the upcoming census reapportionment will be the continuation of a long-term trend of migration from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and the West, he said.

"What we're talking about is looking at the shifting of 12 to 14 seats," he said. "It's bound to have a political impact. States that are gaining (seats) tend to be more Republican, and states that are losing tend to be more on the Democratic side."

Still, Juliette Tennert, the state's top demographer, and Perlich agree that a fifth seat isn't likely.

"Even though we've experienced tremendous population growth in this decade, a fifth seat is not in the cards for us," Tennert said.

While Utah likely won't be on the edge in 2010, Brace predicts that another state will. Utah launched unsuccessful court challenges after it lost out on a fourth seat to North Carolina by just 80 people.

"It's likely that some other state will be at that tipping edge," he says. "It's inevitable each time we do this."

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E-mail: dbulkeley@desnews.com