A win in Iowa caucuses doesn't really mean much

For example, Gephardt won the Iowa caucuses in 1988 with 31 percent of the vote. But he later dropped out of the race, and Dukakis, who finished third with 22 percent of the vote, ended up winning his party's nomination and got all of the Iowa delegate votes.

Even more confusing is the fact that a candidate can win Iowa but not win it as "big" as he was supposed to. And so Iowa ends up to be a stumbling block, not a victory. Or he can finish poorly but higher than expected and so come out of Iowa with a bounce.

In 1992, Clinton finished fourth in Iowa with just 3 percent of the vote — "unaffiliated" finished second with 12 percent. Favorite son Tom Harkin won big with 76 percent of the vote but was quickly washed aside in later primaries. But Clinton was expected to do even worse. So fourth place turned into a "win," which he then built upon in New Hampshire, earning the nickname the Comeback Kid.

Howard Dean finished third in Iowa in 2004, getting 18 percent of the vote — much better than Clinton's first showing in the state. But after Dean was videotaped screaming "Yaahiiiii" and pledging to fight on, his Iowa showing basically ended his presidential campaign — mainly because Dean was expected to win Iowa just weeks earlier.

Some are saying that Romney, much beloved in Utah for his LDS faith and saving the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, must finish first or second in Iowa to have any chance of winning the GOP nomination this year.

But the fact is the January primaries of South Carolina and Florida, and then 20 states' primaries all on Feb. 5, are more informative and important than Iowa — a small, mostly white rural state where maybe 10 percent or 15 percent of voters will actually go to their caucuses. Romney has the personal wealth and fund-raising skills to keep on fighting beyond Iowa.

Watch with interest the Iowa results. But don't see Iowa as definitive for any of the top-level candidates.

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Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com.