A win in Iowa caucuses doesn't really mean much

As this column meets its deadline, a small percentage of Iowans are preparing to go to their party caucuses — thus becoming the first Americans to vote in the 2008 presidential primaries.

As a national TV anchor said, there are more TV satellite trucks in Des Moines than there are taxicabs.

And for what? A political feeding frenzy that, in many presidential elections, doesn't mean much.

Wait a minute. It must mean something. Mitt Romney has run 8,000 TV ads in Iowa. Millions of dollars have been spent there by more than a dozen candidates. John Edwards has been there more than 100 times in the past few years.

But a critical look at Iowa shows that the candidate that finishes first in Iowa in both major political parties does not necessarily win his or her party's nomination. In fact, sometimes the Iowa winner is out of the race a month or two later.

Using the Web site Wikipedia — the online encyclopedia — here are some Iowa facts:

• Iowa is one of the most white states in the nation, hardly representative of the racial and ethnic makeup of the country.

• John Kerry, Al Gore and Bill Clinton finished first in the last three Democratic Party caucuses and went on to win their party's nomination (Clinton was the sitting president and had no opposition). But Clinton finished a distant fourth in 1992 (getting just 3 percent of the Democratic vote), and he went on to win the nomination and the presidency.

• In 1988 Michael Dukakis finished third in Iowa, yet he won his party's nomination. And Dick Gephardt, who finished first, was out of the race within two months.

• In 1976, Jimmy Carter finished second in Iowa behind no one. That's right, first place went to "unaffiliated."

• Iowa is more predictive for Republicans, but there have still been some quirks. George H.W. Bush, the current president's father, finished third in Iowa in 1988, behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson, yet still won his party's nomination. And Bush was the sitting vice president when he fared so poorly there.

• In 1980 Bush beat Ronald Reagan in Iowa but was later swept aside by the future two-term president.

The caucuses are not a direct vote for a candidate. Rather, caucus members' votes are supposed to be reflected in later county party conventions and the state party conventions. But a candidate can win Iowa, or finish high in the rankings, and never see a vote for him or her in their party's national nominating conventions.