Political experts say a third poll released Friday, which is nearly identical to two others taken in the past five months, is a crystal ball with a single message: Vouchers aren't going to make it.

Fifty-seven percent of Utah voters say they are against a universal private school voucher program, according to a Dan Jones & Associates poll conducted for the Deseret Morning News and KSL-TV. Thirty-five percent said they would vote for vouchers, while 8 percent were undecided.

"Voucher people have to have an almost mystical belief in their ability to get this vote to overcome the consistency of this 20-point deficit," said Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.

"It's quite remarkable to have so many polls remain almost identical for almost five months — typically you see little bumps and spikes (in different polls) depending on the news, but this seems to show that people are pretty settled on this," he said.

Also, last month another statewide poll that was released by Brigham Young University produced the same results.

Last week's poll surveyed 603 Utahns — 200 more than the two other polls conducted for the Deseret Morning News and KSL in the past few months. It has a margin of error of 4 percent.

"For vouchers to pass, it has to get more Republican votes," said pollster Dan Jones, who has polled in Utah for more than 30 years.

His new survey shows that 50 percent of Republicans plan to vote against vouchers, while only 41 percent plan to vote in favor.

"A very large majority of 81 percent of the Democrats are against vouchers," Jones added. "But what is really keeping the voucher initiative from passing is that 58 percent of political independents are against them."

Getting the LDS vote is necessary to win in Utah, and Jones' latest survey shows that 57 percent of members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints oppose vouchers.

Jones added that he expects the pro-voucher effort to be very heavy over the weekend and that the final vote will be closer than the latest poll shows.

Legislators last winter approved a $500 to $3,000 voucher for private school tuition, based on income, plus $9.2 million to make sure public schools aren't left hurting, at least for the first five years. But voucher critics successfully petitioned to put the law up to a public vote.

Though voucher supporters recognize the odds are against them, some are counting on an upset.

"I am not going to underestimate parents for one second," said Leah Barker, spokeswoman for Parents for Choice in Education. "We have put up the very best fight that we can considering that we don't have that built-in infrastructure through the public school system. ... I'm so proud of what we've done here."