From Deseret News archives:

Outlook still rosy

But Utah business leaders' optimism about the future has waned a bit

Published: Saturday, Sept. 22, 2007 12:29 a.m. MDT
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Utah business leaders remain "overwhelmingly optimistic" about the financial future of their companies, though such wild optimism has waned slightly in the past year, according to a survey released by Zions Bank.

The bank's Utah Quarterly Economic Forecast, conducted by research firm Dan Jones & Associates, reveals that 27 percent of those polled rated their level of optimism at a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale.

That is compared to 33 percent in the second quarter of 2006.

With Utah's economy among the best in the nation, economist Jeff Thredgold attributes the decrease to national problems — the credit crunch, subprime mortgage crisis, looming housing bust — rather than anything happening on the local level.

"Any dip in confidence is probably tied more to external factors," said Thredgold, an economic consultant to Zions Bank and head of Salt Lake-based Thredgold Economic Associates.

"A lot of these external forces influence business psychology, if you will."

Despite the slight decrease, nearly half — 48 percent — of the panelists still predict that the economic health of their companies will be somewhat or much better in the upcoming quarter than it was in the previous one, the survey found.

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As in past studies, business leaders remain concerned about the rising cost of health insurance and finding — and keeping — qualified employees in a tight labor market.

"As far as doing business in Utah, the big issue is still labor," Thredgold said. "The focus for employers, really, is if you have an open position, can you fill it with somebody?"

According to the survey, companies with a greater number of full-time employees are more likely to be concerned about keeping qualified employees, the survey found.

"With our competitive job market, executives may be seeing that there's competition for the employees they already have," said Julie Olsen, a market research analyst at Dan Jones.

Concern about rising gasoline prices moved up to third place for business leaders in the second quarter of 2007 but remains slightly less of a concern than it was at this time last year.

This survey is the fifth cycle for the Utah Quarterly Economic Forecast. Commissioned by Zions Bank, the study is intended to provide a local barometer for the state's business leaders.

"Business executives in Utah can measure the climate for themselves," Olsen said. "It's created by executives, for executives."

The poll, conducted primarily online between July 9 and Aug. 3, surveyed 336 respondents in high-ranking positions at businesses statewide.


E-mail: awelling@desnews.com

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