Many subprime borrowers could lose homes

As many as half of the 450,000 subprime borrowers whose mortgage payments increase in the next three months may lose their homes because they can't sell, refinance or qualify for help from the U.S. government.

"Short of the cavalry riding in over the hill, a lot of these people are just stuck," said Christopher Cagan, director of research and analytics at Santa Ana, California-based First American CoreLogic, the risk management unit of the biggest U.S. title insurer.

The number of borrowers whose mortgage payments jump in the next three months will be the second-highest ever for a quarter, according to Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-biggest bank. Twenty-seven percent have already missed a payment, said First American LoanPerformance, which owns the largest database of U.S. mortgages. That makes them ineligible for the Federal Housing Administration bailout proposed last month by President George W. Bush.

There's no lifeline in sight for subprime borrowers, who face an average increase of 26 percent, or $400 a month, according to CoreLogic.

Falling prices and a rising inventory of unsold homes make it difficult or impossible to sell or refinance without losing money and government programs aren't designed to aid the most desperate. That leaves foreclosure as the only alternative, and one that will deepen and prolong the worst housing downturn in at least 16 years.

Robert Murray of Middletown, New Jersey, said he didn't pay enough attention when he took out a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage in 2002. This month, his payments ballooned to $1,800 from $1,300. Because he makes about $90,000 a year at his Newark Liberty International Airport maintenance job and hasn't missed a payment, he said he hoped he might be a good candidate to refinance.

Since the value of his home has declined from the $265,000 he owes on two mortgages, Murray's equity has vanished. If Murray were to apply for an FHA-insured refinance, he'd be out of luck.

The FHA bailout program, called FHASecure, requires the borrower to have at least 3 percent equity in the home. Some borrowers can get a second mortgage in addition to the FHA loan to cover the entire value of their houses. Murray borrowed more than his home is now worth, so he would have to write a check of at least $45,000 to close a refinance. He doesn't have the cash.

"I'm way upside down," Murray said. "The payments will kill me now. I don't know what I'm going to do."