Tuesday is primary election day in cities and towns across the state.

The premier race is in Salt Lake City, where residents will winnow a nine-member mayoral field down to two.

Each of the four top contenders — measured in both raising campaign cash and standing in local public opinion surveys — hope to be in the pair that go on to the Nov. 6 final election.

So, who do I think (guess might be a better word) will advance Tuesday?

General thinking is that the final pair will be Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson, a Democrat, and Salt Lake City Councilman Dave Buhler, a Republican.

That would mean that Utah House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, a Democrat, and former City Councilman Keith Christensen, an independent, would finish out of the money, their campaigns finished.

I see no major reasons to doubt that outcome.

But trust me, local elections can turn on a dime — or in the case of Utah House Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy, 20 votes, his slim margin of victory in 2006.

Can Becker and Christensen break through Tuesday?

Sure.

But as it stands Thursday when this column's deadline falls, I still think the conventional wisdom — Wilson and Buhler in the final — holds.

If that is indeed the final match-up, Wilson has to be looking good.

Buhler is a moderate Republican, as seen by his service in the Utah Senate.

And while the mayor's race is officially nonpartisan — the candidates' name on the ballot will not carry their political party affiliation — truth is the four major candidates have all talked about their partisan politics (or in the case of Christensen, his change from Republican to independent earlier this year).

Indeed, if Buhler is in the final election he'll be fighting the same battle he did in 1991. Then he narrowly defeated a known Democrat in the primary to get into the mayoral final election, only to be washed aside by former Mayor Deedee Corradini, also a Democrat.

In fact, the city has not elected a GOP mayor since Jake Garn back in 1971.

Buhler is also a faithful member of the LDS Church. And the city hasn't elected a Mormon mayor since Ted Wilson (Jenny's father) won re-election in 1983.

Jenny Wilson is not a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Neither is Becker (another Democrat).

Christensen, while raised LDS, is not a practicing member.

So, if history plays out again this year, city dwellers will elect a Democratic non-Mormon as their mayor.

And if the final matchup is Buhler and Jenny Wilson, Buhler has to turn back an electoral tide that has been running long and strong for decades.