Salt Lake City is increasingly a left of center locale. Yet, the highest demographic that remains undecided in the mayor's race are those who consider themselves "very liberal." Will a mayoral candidate make the bold move to attract these hard-liners, while another tries to garner independent voters?

Political observers are watching with interest whether the mayoral contenders follow the road map to electoral success articulated by Dan Jones — the patriarch of Utah politicos.

Webb: With a little more than six weeks to go before the Sept. 11 primary election, the real mayoral campaign now begins. Voters will start to pay more attention, and candidates will ramp up the campaign intensity, adding media advertising to become more visible.

I believe this race is still up for grabs among the four leading candidates. All four are solid, smart and hard-working, and none is out of contention.

The Dan Jones poll provides a nice snapshot of where the race is today among people who said they are likely to vote. However, outcomes of low-turnout municipal primary races are notoriously hard to predict.

With four strong candidates splitting votes, it doesn't take a lot of votes to emerge from the primary election. But what keeps campaign strategists awake at night is worrying about how to motivate their supporters to vote on Election Day.

So the game for the next six weeks is targeting voters who will likely support a particular candidate and getting them to the voting booth. This requires organizational and managerial prowess. It requires excellent field work and frequent direct communications with supporters through phone calls, direct mail and contact from friends, neighbors and opinion leaders that voters trust. This kind of campaigning isn't high-profile or full of glory. It's just down-and-dirty campaign basics slogging through the lists, identifying supporters and working them with direct mail and phone calls.

Some level of mass media television and radio buys are important to show the candidate is visible and viable but much less important than a strong ground game.

Today, Wilson is clearly the front-runner. Buhler has an excellent chance to emerge from the primary if he can rally Republican/moderate voters and get them to the polls. But Christensen is showing some movement and has plenty of money that can make a difference if he spends it wisely.

And Becker, perhaps the most low-key of the four main candidates, should not be underestimated. He has worked the grassroots hard, knocking on thousands of doors. He could be the surprise of the election.

A successful political campaign consists of a candidate and staff doing a million little things (stuffing envelopes, making phone calls, appearing before countless small groups, doing literature drops, raising money, walking door-to-door) that, by themselves, seem inconsequential, but in total add up to victory on Election Day.

This race won't be determined by advertising but will come down to who works the hardest and executes the best strategy in the last month.

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Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Pignanelli, who ran for Salt Lake mayor in 2003, served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.