Overpopulating the Earth is unfounded myth

Ben Wattenberg, who has followed this issue for decades, wrote 20 years ago in "The Birth Dearth" that the Western developed countries were in trouble because of dramatically declining TFR. For example, in Europe and Japan, the TFR in the 1980s was 1.8. In Wattenberg's recent book, "Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future," he notes with alarm that in a single generation the European and Japanese TFR has declined to 1.3. "That level is unheard of, previously unimaginable." In real terms, that means European population will decline from about 728 million in 2000 to around 600 million by 2050 — about 130 million fewer people.

But even more startling, and the reason Wattenberg wrote his follow-up book, is that the overall world TFR is falling off a cliff. Before the freefall of the past 50 years, the TFR for less-developed countries was 6.19 (1950-55). The uninterrupted decline in developing-country population has led to a TFR closer to 2.7.

China, for example, has an "official" TFR of 1.8, but, as Wattenberg notes, a more careful analysis of recent data shows that China's TFR is more likely 1.65. Official numbers show that "China's TFR declined by 4.26 in just 40 years!"

Last week I wrote about "Americanism" and how exceptional the American experiment continues to be. Perhaps the most striking example of this exception is how utterly different the United States is compared to the Western world and to its neighbors, Canada and Mexico. The U.S. TFR is hovering right at the replacement level of 2.1. The total TFR for the developed countries, including the United States, is 1.6. Canada is less than 1.5, and Mexico is just above replacement at 2.5 but still declining.

In a new book "The Natural Family," Allan Carlson and Paul Mero sum up the issue: "Depopulation, not a mythical overpopulation, is the problem that nations face in the 21st century." Next week: Causes and consequences of depopulation.

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Joseph A. Cannon is editor of the Deseret Morning News.