Hartley said he's glad Jones' polls don't show that people "have taken the bitter pill" of actually switching from the Republican to Democratic parties.

Kelly Patterson, a political science professor at Brigham Young University, said while the percentage of Utahns saying they are Republican has not declined, "certainly there is a shift within that group — there are more 'leaning Republicans,' there are more 'weak' Republicans. And there are more Republicans who, at least in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, are willing to split their tickets and vote for (Democratic U.S.) Rep. Jim Matheson."

Matheson barely won re-election in 2002. He won by a healthy margin in 2004 and crushed his GOP challenger in 2006.

Most Utahns are still Republicans, Matheson said Monday. And Utahns are generally a more stable group of citizens in many ways, not just in politics. But, he agrees, 2nd District residents are more willing to vote for him outside of pure partisanship. Utah voters "are willing to size people up individually," he said.

Political scientists say that rarely does someone jump from being an active member of one party to being an active member of the other major party. Most people move to the independent category before actually switching political parties — and as independents are more likely to split-ticket their ballots.

Utah GOP leaders don't need to worry about the short term, said Patterson. No matter how unpopular Bush becomes or how badly the Iraq War goes, Utah voters seem willing to stand by their party.

But long term, local Republicans should worry, Patterson said. That's because as more and more Americans become Democrats, the stronger that party becomes. And that shift could lead to better Democratic candidates running in Utah. It could mean the nation's Democratic party raises a lot more cash, so it can put more money into voter identification in Utah; making sure its congressional and gubernatorial candidates are well-funded.

"The Democrats are not going to become the majority party in Utah," said Patterson. "But you could see them make great strides here — and lead to a better performance by Democrats in (local) elections."

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E-mail: bbjr@desnews.com