From Deseret News archives:

Romney, Clinton favored

Poll of party insiders also finds big partisan divisions

Published: Sunday, March 4, 2007 12:01 a.m. MST
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The Times Poll, directed by Susan Pinkus, interviewed 313 of 386 DNC members and 133 of 165 RNC members between Feb. 13 and 26. Since the poll attempted to interview current state members of each organization, rather than a random sample, there is no margin of error.

The survey found no candidate enjoying a lock on institutional support. To the contrary, more than 1 in 3 RNC members said they had no favorite, while just under 1 in 3 DNC members said they had no preference.

Among Republicans, Romney had the most backing among party insiders, with 20 percent support, followed by Giuliani with 14 percent, McCain with 10 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia — who has said he might enter the race in the fall — with 8 percent.

In a potentially worrisome sign for McCain, slightly more than 1 in 10 RNC members said they would not support him if he won the party's nomination in his second attempt.

"It shows just how much resistance there is within the Republican establishment to McCain and how open the party is to candidates who either aren't very conservative, like Giuliani, or only recently minted conservatives, like Romney," Cook said. "McCain has worked pretty hard since 2000 to be a team player, but these numbers would suggest that there is still a problem for him."

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Among Democrats, Clinton had the backing of 20 percent of party leaders, followed by Edwards with 15 percent, Obama with 11 percent, former Vice President Al Gore — who is not in the race — with 10 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson with 9 percent.

Regardless of whom the insiders supported, Giuliani and Clinton, of New York, were considered their party's strongest prospective nominees with the best shot at winning the White House.

The insiders were divided over their most important criteria for backing a candidate. Slightly more than one-third of Republicans said issues were the most important factor. Nearly 4 in 10 Democrats said the most important factor was a candidate's chance of winning the White House.

The survey turned up a dramatic split over the direction of the country and the problems the presidential candidates should address.

Although 83 percent of Republicans said the country was on the right track — and all said the economy was doing well — 95 percent of Democrats said the country was headed the wrong way, and more than 6 in 10 said the economy was in bad shape.

Not surprisingly, partisans also were worlds apart over the war in Iraq, with the overwhelming majority of Republicans supporting Bush's policies and Democrats nearly unanimous in their opposition.

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