A cold and dry winter will leave Utah's mountain snowpack totals short of average come April, a state forecaster predicts.

"We are toast," Randy Julander, the Utah Snow Survey supervisor, wrote in an e-mail to state water managers last week.

The prediction is based on readings from a network of Snotel sites across the state's mountains that measure year-round precipitation and snowfall. Included in the readings is the water content of the snow. Utah counts on run-off from snowmelt to fill its reservoirs.

Current data show northern Utah to be suffering the most, with snowpack in the Weber River drainage at 58 percent of normal as of Friday. Precipitation is at 75 percent of normal thanks to heavy rains late in 2006.

"In the Weber, we've never had that kind of precipitation," Julander's e-mail said.

For the Weber drainage to recover, snowfall would have to reach 163 percent of normal for the rest of the season and, based on historical records, there's no chance that will happen, he said.

Other data show the Bear River drainage at 61 percent of normal, and the Provo-Jordan River drainage at 55 percent. Combined with the Weber, those three drainages provide water to most of Utah's population.

The Green River drainage has the highest snowpack reading at 85 percent.