"If you're running a business in Utah, you've had good performance, because the economy's been dynamite," Thredgold said. "But then you see more talk of national economic slowing, you're aware that labor markets are incredibly tight and that it will be difficult to remain fully staffed, as it has been for the last few months. And it's not likely to get better for a while."

Still, Thredgold said he believes the U.S. economy has sufficient strength in a majority of sectors to fend off an actual recession.

"It's no secret that the housing market is soft on the coasts, and may have already seen its bottom," he said. "It's true that the automotive sector is slow. But others are doing reasonably well or very well. The global economy is rock solid. For the fourth year in a row, we've had global economic growth of at least 4 percent after inflation — we haven't seen that since the early 1970s, and it helps us."

A weaker dollar helps U.S. exports and fuels tourism, he said. And analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut its key interest rate in March. All of which will help businesses in Utah and nationwide, he said.

For more information about the study, go online to utaheconomicforecast.com.

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E-mail: jnii@desnews.com