Those pesky surpluses

Apparently, Utah's leaders can run from the state's snowballing surplus, but they can't hide. Whoever really is behind the Tax Commission's sudden decision to stop making public monthly reports on collections versus expenditures has failed miserably.

At the request of this newspaper, Doug Macdonald, the man who developed a model for calculating those monthly estimates and who resigned abruptly as the commission's chief economist earlier this year, has used available information to give a snapshot of where the state is. His estimate, based on three economic forecasting models and using the commission's latest report on revenue, is that Utah has a $150 million surplus with eight months remaining in the fiscal year.

If the trend continues, the state could be facing a $450 million annual surplus, which would be a record. Macdonald said he is confident in those figures.

Why won't the Tax Commission make this information available? It's hard to say. Reporters at this newspaper have been given several excuses, from that Macdonald was the only one who knew how to calculate them to that lawmakers had asked the commission to stop producing them.

As for lawmakers, they have reacted to the lack of commission reports with the kind of shock and horror that one would expect from people currying the favor of voters who demand openness. But how they act privately may be another matter. One key senator said GOP leadership wants monthly estimates made public again, but a commission spokesman said legislative leadership has made no such formal request.

Meanwhile, talk has surfaced of finding a way to "vet" the information before making it public.

Get real.

The reason why monthly estimates no longer exist seems simple enough. Mounting surpluses have become a delicate matter for state politicians, who are learning that it can be harder to govern in good times than in bad. Do they fund needy programs or cut taxes? And whatever they do, how do they explain it so the public can understand?

It may be more convenient for everyone involved to simply issue one report at the end of the fiscal year and avoid the steady churn of media reports and questions.

But as Macdonald and reporters at this newspaper have shown, that isn't an option.