"That trickle has become a torrent, and it has disrupted the market," said Duane Zavadil, vice president for government and regulatory affairs at Bill Barrett Corp., a Denver-based oil and gas company.

"I think it's a long-term trend. As long as there's capacity, the Canadians, where they can compete with an advantage, are going to soak that up."

Oil refineries, he said, aren't doing anything illegal.

"The refiners aren't compelled to give us top dollar" for Uinta Basin black wax, Zavadil said. "They're simply making as much money as possible."

The only way for local oil producers to compete, he said, would be with a refinery dedicated to black wax.

"We hope something happens," he said. "We have some very difficult decisions to make."

Barrett, which produces up to 1,000 barrels a day, and its partners in the Uinta Basin have scaled back exploration and development to focus on more profitable sites.

"When we see a situation like that in Utah, we just have to go somewhere else," Zavadil said.

Mineral landowners in the basin, including the Ute Tribe, which draws 65 percent of its income from black wax production, can't pick up and leave.

"They just see their lifeblood draining away," Zavadil said. "We don't see a solution to this issue. We see a worsening condition of the displacement of the domestic product."

A muffled boom?

Cameron Cuch, a member of the Ute Tribe and an analyst for Ute Energy, says a pullout of rigs will put the community on the economic skids.

The state and the governor touted a platform to bring big business to Salt Lake City and the Wasatch Front, Cuch said. But a great deal of business takes place off the Front, and particularly in the Uinta Basin.

McKeachnie noted that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints plans to spend more than $1 billion making over downtown Salt Lake City.

"Oil and gas companies spend that every year," he said. "That's a big boost to our economy."

But spending could be slashed if there aren't markets for the oil.

"That could be cut drastically if they aren't able to refine their product and have to discount it," Cuch said. "There's no benefit to the consumer."

Furthermore, lost wages, local business investment and sales and individual income-tax revenues could cost the state and Uintah and Duchesne counties an estimated $231.5 million, according to oil producers' estimates.

"I think this story needs to be told over and over," Evans said. "Because people, unless they live out there, do not understand the issues and the lack of capacity."

Market forces