Business growing — but slowly

Growth, only slower.

That's the message in the latest Mountain States Business Conditions Index. The index, released Monday, fell to 73.3 in September from August's 75.6. Prepared by Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., the report is based on a combined survey of local supply managers and business leaders in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado.

The index ranges from zero to 100, with a figure over 50 indicating an expansionary economy over the next three to six months. It uses the same methodology as a national survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, a private research group that surveys purchasing and supply executives in more than 350 industrial companies nationwide.

Utah's business conditions saw another steep drop, to 66.5 in September from 70.6 in August and 80.6 in July. Lower marks in delivery lead time and employment, served as weights.

"Durable and nondurable goods producers, except for food processing, reported upturns in business activity over August levels," Ernie Goss, Creighton economics professor, wrote in the report. "Trucking firms detailed a downturn in September growth. Utah is on track to add roughly 46,000 jobs for 2006. This is down from last year due to labor shortages in selected industries."

Colorado's index registered 65.8, down from August's 71.3, while Wyoming saw its results fall to 83.8 from last month's 84.

Job shortages on a regional basis seem to be having minimal effect on regional growth, Goss said.

"I expect the region to add approximately 110,000 jobs in 2006," he wrote. "This is a 2.9 percent job growth rate, which is roughly twice that of the nation. Absent labor shortages, the region's growth for 2006 would approach 4 percent."

Meanwhile, the ISM's national manufacturing index registered 52.9 in September, below August's reading of 54.5 and the lowest reading since May 2005.

"The good news is there is still growth, and pricing pressures are easing," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "The bad news is growth is slowing, it will slow more, and it's leading to cuts in jobs."

The reason is threefold, he said: less home construction, slashed auto production and backed-up inventories.

"I can't see any factor causing manufacturing activity to pick up," Zandi said. "It's just a question now of how significantly it will slow down, and if it will contract in the coming months."

He said he expects the index to fall below 50 around the end of the year, and then rebound in the spring.