Christensen's challenge is to paint Matheson as a national Democrat. Under that mind-set, Christensen has a chance. But, of course, that's the same strategy that past 2nd District Republicans have tried. And it didn't work.

Well, it almost worked in 2002. That was Matheson's first re-election after redistricting and he had a whole new group of eastern and southern Utah voters. Matheson beat then-state Rep. John Swallow, a Sandy Republican, by less than 1 percentage point.

Utah GOP leaders then figured they'd get Matheson in 2004, a presidential election year. I mean, how many voters would cast a ballot for President Bush and then just a few lines down the ballot vote for a Democrat for the U.S. House?

Well, a lot did just that.

Matheson beat Swallow (again the GOP challenger) 56-44 percent. That's nearly a landslide in a GOP-leaning district like Utah's 2nd, a district that went heavily for the president.

A year ago at this time, the Utah GOP didn't even have an announced candidate against Matheson. When well-known KSL Radio personality Doug Wright decided not to get in the race as a Republican, Christensen stepped forward to pick up the GOP flag. A millionaire worth at least $5 million, many figured Christensen would pour money into his race — as Chris Cannon did in unseating then-Democratic Rep. Bill Orton in 1996 in the 3rd District, and as other Utah millionaire candidates have done before.

So far, Christensen has not pumped a lot of cash into his race — $150,000 as of mid-July. Matheson has more than $1 million in his campaign coffers. And now it looks like Christensen won't be seeing $1 million coming into the 2nd District from outside, as we have before.

The 2nd District race is by no means over.

If it really looks like Republicans could lose control of the U.S. House, some 2nd District conservatives could come home at the last moment — handing Matheson his hat.

But as of now, without big bucks coming from outside and Matheson riding high in the polls, Christensen enters the last two months of the 2006 election clearly an underdog — in votes and in money.

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Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com