From Deseret News archives:
Job growth slows
But Utah economists say 'peaking' need not portend gloomy times
However, department economists say the slowing is not unexpected and need not portend gloomy times.
Utah's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in July, down nearly a full percentage point from the same period a year ago but up slightly from June's unadjusted 3.1 percent. About 44,000 Utahns were unemployed last month, compared to 52,600 people in July 2005.
Employment growth for Utah slowed slightly in July, according to the department, moving to 4.7 percent from June's revised 4.9 percent.
"This is something we've anticipated," said Austin Sargent, regional economist with Workforce Services. "First, it's just really hard to sustain growth rates close to 5 percent. Number two, even though we think it's going to start slowing, we don't think it will slow significantly or drastically. We think we'll gradually slow (from current levels) to our historical growth rate (of 3.3 percent)."
The manufacturing sector also saw growth, albeit not at such lofty levels. Manufacturing added 3,600 jobs over the past year, for a growth rate of 3.1 percent.
Knold wrote in the report that he believes Utah's employment growth rate has summited, which he attributed to near-full employment and slowing in the broader national and international economies.
"Utah's low unemployment rate implies full employment in the labor market, to the point where finding additional workers for more job expansion may become restrictive," Knold wrote.
While there is evidence of in-migration, Sargent said it doesn't appear to be enough to offset the demand for skilled workers. So slowing in the job growth rate might actually help the employer community catch its breath and fill its rosters.
"We're still very positive about the Utah economy," Sargent said. "We think things are going well. We're still seeing growth, in a wide variety of occupations, and this all bodes well for the state of Utah. And it should help sustain us as the national economy slows or is anticipated to slow.
"Overall, Utah is very, very healthy. And we think it will probably stay that way. We're just anticipating a slight cooling in the rate of growth. But we'll likely still be above our historical average for the next year, at least."
Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the national unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in July, up from 4.6 percent the previous month. Total employment rose by 1.3 percent.
E-mail: jnii@desnews.com
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