In 1992, Utah was the only state that gave independent candidate Ross Perot more votes than Democrat Bill Clinton.

In recent months, President Bush's Supreme Court appointments have resonated favorably with many Utahns, contributing to the strength of Republicans, he said.

National issues that are important to Utahns include Iraq and terrorism, he said. The recent arrest in Britain of accused terrorists allegedly plotting to blow up airliners flying between England and the United States will have an impact in the political polls.

"I promise you, he'll gain 5 percentage points, five," Jones said of Bush's popularity.

If Americans troops capture al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden before the 2008 election, Jones said, that will greatly improve Republicans' chances.

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