California fuels Utah growth

People moving from California, many of them Hispanic, are fueling Utah's population growth, as is immigration and the nation's highest fertility rate, according to a University of Utah report.

More than half of those who moved from California to Utah were Hispanic, according to the report, "Utah's Place in the Macro Demographics of the U.S. in the 20th Century."

Nearly one-third of people who moved to Utah from California were foreign-born, said the report's author, Pam Perlich, a senior research economist at the university.

If not for international migration, from 1997 to 2004 Utah would have seen more residents move out than in, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

"Mostly our source region is in Mexico here in Utah, and taking in all the refugee populations," Perlich said. "Our main domestic migration, without a doubt, is totally driven by California."

The report found that Utah had a net domestic out-migration of 33,822 between 2000 and 2005. That means more people moved from Utah to other states than the other way around. However, when international migration is included, Utah gained 16,173 people.

The Utah Population Estimates Committee has long believed the census in general has underestimated migration into Utah.

As Utah lost many high-skill jobs over that time period, immigrants continued to move to the state to take jobs in industries such as construction, Perlich said. Those who moved out of Utah went largely to Arizona and Nevada, the two fastest-growing states in the West, along with Colorado and Oregon.

The trend turned around in 2005, as high-tech jobs began to rebound, Perlich said.

"We started seeing job growth across the spectrum," she said. "Some of these young, college-educated people who had to leave the state started moving back in."

Despite strong growth in both the foreign-born and Hispanic communities, Utah didn't see as much growth proportionally as did the rest of the nation.

Hispanics contributed to 40 percent of the nation's population growth during the 1990s and are projected to account for half of the nation's population growth over the next 50 years.

Utah saw a 138 percent increase in its Hispanic population during the 1990s. However, because of Utah's "very strong fertility rate," and a small Hispanic population, Hispanics only contributed to 23 percent of Utah's overall growth, Perlich said.

The national fertility rate — or the number of children a woman can expect to have in her lifetime — for white, non-Hispanic, women is 1.8. In Utah, it's nearly 2.5.

Nationally, Hispanic women, with a fertility rate of 2.7, were driving much of the internal growth. In Utah, Hispanic women had a fertility rate of 3.5, which is expected to decline somewhat as the population becomes more established, Perlich said.

If Utah's fertility rates were closer to the rest of the nation, the Hispanic population would account for a larger share of the state's growth, she added.

Nationally "white, non-Hispanic and native-born fertility rates are well below replacement," Perlich said. "That means nationally, every generation born is smaller."

The report can be found at www.business.utah.edu/bebr.

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E-mail: dbulkeley@desnews.com