Cannon leading Jacob

Only 21 percent of district voters said they had a favorable opinion of Jacob; 12 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion.

Jones said that while he was calling Utah homes on this poll, Jacob's campaign seemed to fade. "The last few days of bad press (over several issues) have hurt Jacob," Jones said.

Cannon will have recorded endorsement ads telephoned into homes by President Bush and first lady Laura Bush. In many parts of the country, a Bush endorsement may mean little, maybe even hurt. But Jones found that 66 percent of 3rd District residents approve of the job the president is doing. Seventy-six percent approve of the job Mrs. Bush is doing.

So the Bush endorsement ads are probably helping Cannon.

Jacob has attacked Cannon repeatedly over the question of illegal immigration. Jacob says Cannon has supported a guest worker program and societal integration proposals that basically result in amnesty for an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States today.

Cannon denies those charges, saying he has a record of being one of the toughest border control representatives in Congress.

Jones found that among those who want strict border control and no guest worker and/or amnesty, the race is a statistical tie: Jacob has 42 percent of the law-and-order immigration vote, Cannon 41 percent.

Count those who favor some kind of legal status for illegal immigrants, and the vote breaks away differently: 56 percent support Cannon and only 22 percent are for Jacob.

Jacob may be winning the vote of the illegal immigration hard-liners, but it appears those hard-liners don't make up the majority of 3rd District voters, the survey shows.

Who votes is again key. The immigration hard-liners could make the difference in a small-turnout primary, Jones says. "If the Minutemen get people out, this (race) could really tighten up."

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E-mail: bbjr@desnews.com