In what kind of upside-down universe would we see this: A national political newspaper says that Rep. Jim Matheson, a Democrat in heavily Republican Utah, is a "likely" winner this year, while conservative GOP Rep. Chris Cannon is one of the 10 "most vulnerable" incumbents in the nation?

In its editions this week, Roll Call, a newspaper that covers Congress, updated its guesses on how the 435 U.S. House races will play out this year.

Various congressional-watchers in the 2000s opined that Matheson could be a dead duck in his 2nd Congressional District, which normally votes around 60 percent Republican in major races, like U.S. president.

But none has him losing in 2006, where he is challenged by state Rep. LaVar Christensen, R-Draper.

Both Roll Call and the Cook Political Report, another D.C.-insider newspaper, list the 2nd District in Utah going "likely Democratic."

While Cannon's 3rd District is "safe Republican," says Roll Call, it's his June 27 GOP primary against land-and-water developer John Jacob where the congressional newspaper lists Cannon as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in the nation.

"Cannon may be the anti-immigration hardliners' first political scalp" this year, the newspapers' editors say.

Jacob says he may well spend $635,000 or more of his own money by primary election day.

"That may be enough for voters to fire Cannon," the newspaper writes.

While Cannon leads Jacob nicely in a head-to-head match-up in a new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates, the five-term incumbent does not get high job approval ratings.

Jones found that only 45 percent of district residents approve of the job Cannon is doing in Washington, D.C. Thirty-six percent disapprove.

Perhaps more interesting, among Republicans Cannon has a 60 percent approval rating, while 26 percent of Republicans don't like the job Cannon is doing.

Jacob says his campaign will surge forward as 3rd District voters get to see what he stands for. Jacob is selling a "Letter of Intent," where he promises to walk the conservative line on immigration, education, energy and protection of citizens' rights.

Cannon's chief of staff, Joe Hunter, says that Cannon's fund raising is really taking off.

"Our themes will be immigration" — where Cannon will show that his ideas are not greatly different from other national Republicans — says Hunter.

"We'll talk about Chris' record as a conservative, and talk about the things that Chris has done and, hopefully, will continue to do for the 3rd District," Hunter said.

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E-mail: bbjr@desnews.com