"It's expensive. It's not required by lending institutions, so people don't buy it," Stuart Young, managing director of Acordia Mountain West Insurance, said in 2005.

Renters with renters' insurance are lucky: The quake damage to their possessions is usually included in regular policies, but too many renters did not bother to buy it.

John Henry, spokesman for United Services Auto Association insurance, said in 2006, "Renters insurance is often overlooked. Yes, apartment owners have insurance, but that only covers damage to the structure, not the possessions of renters. Renters insurance covers their possessions. It represents a good value."

Damaged schools

Schools, in part because many were old unreinforced masonry buildings, suffered severe damage and casualties. But it could have been much worse. Some districts in recent years had spent hundreds of millions to seismically upgrade or replace old schools, which helped them and their students largely avoid the destruction that hit others.

Still, close to what Carey had predicted in 2006, about 740 students and teachers were killed as the 2008 quake hit during the school day. About another 13,000 were injured in the large quake area from Brigham City to Santaquin, and from Tooele to Coalville.

Also close to Carey's 2006 predictions, a staggering 205 school buildings suffered at least moderate damage — a fourth of the total. About 38 are considered damaged beyond repair.

Another complication came because the 2008 earthquake hit on a cold, snowy day. Children in damaged schools were evacuated outside into freezing weather, where most emergency plans called for holding them there until parents could come retrieve them, unless buildings were declared safe to re-enter. Many were not safe.

The overall damage is not nearly as bad in the Salt Lake City School District, where voters approved a $136 million bond issue in 1999 largely to replace or retrofit schools for seismic safety.

"Currently most of our schools have been retrofitted or rebuilt," Jason Olsen, spokesman for the district, said in 2006. "Schools that are now completed actually meet stricter seismic codes than are required by state law. So hopefully they are very safe buildings in the event of an earthquake."

He added then, "We are making the buildings as safe as we can because we think schools will actually be a gathering point for our communities during emergencies. So we want them to withstand as much as humanly possible."

Indeed as predicted, neighborhoods are using the schools as shelters, emergency kitchens, coordination centers for emergency work and gathering points.