But Dayton is running for Hellewell's safely-GOP Orem seat. Another Republican may run against Dayton, but a Democrat has little chance in the very conservative district.

Likewise, Bourdeaux's westside Salt Lake City district is safely in Democrats' hands.

In the 2004 legislative races, nearly all of the incumbents who sought re-election won: More than 93 percent of those seeking another term were re-elected.

This year could see some upsets as both Reps. Sheryl Allen, R-Bountiful, and Kory Holdaway, R-Taylorsville, who are pro-public education moderates who have earned the ire of school choice advocates and are both being challenged by more conservative Republicans.

Proponents of private school tax vouchers have promised to take after GOP legislators who oppose their efforts. The Parents For Choice in Education PAC spent more than $322,000 in 2004, and school choicers could be big players in the 2006 legislative races.

However, it appears sponsors of school choice bills won't even get a House floor debate and vote this year — they admit they don't have 38 votes to pass their bills. And without an anti-school choice vote on the record this year, even though they voted on similar legislation last year, challengers could find their chore of unseating an incumbent more difficult.

Republicans hold two-thirds majorities in both houses. And Democrats are too far down in numbers to threaten either the House or Senate majorities this year.

Still, in 1986, Utah Democrats caught the Republicans sleeping, and Democrats won 13 more House seats in one election, coming within a half-dozen seats of winning a majority of 38.

Democrats lost those gains since. After the 1991 redistricting, Republicans shored up their safe seats and Democrats haven't come close since.

The departure of Johnson, 71, should not greatly affect the Cowboy Caucus. Whoever wins his seat will undoubtedly still stand for rural Utah.

The caucus still meets once a week during the 45-day general session. But its clout has diminished since the late 1990s.

At that time, former House Speaker Mel Brown, R-Midvale, a dairyman, ensured that rural conservatives exercised power in the House far beyond their 15 or 20 members.

After Brown's fall from power and the rise of more moderate House GOP leaders from the Wasatch Front, the Cowboy Caucus has seen its influence wain.

Just this past session the new Conservative Caucus, made up mostly of Wasatch Front conservatives, emerged within the 56-member House Republicans to become a political player:

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E-mail: bbjr@desnews.com; jloftin@desnews.com