Estimate chance of death in 4 years

CHICAGO — Want to know the odds of you dying in the next four years?

Taking a new quiz put together by researchers whose results are in today's Journal of the American Medical Association can help you figure it out.

The 12-question quiz is roughly 81 percent accurate and can give people 50 and older a reasonable idea of their survival chances, says lead author Dr. Sei Lee, a geriatrics researcher at San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

The test is based on data involving 11,701 Americans over 50 who took part in a national health survey in 1998. Funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging, the researchers analyzed participants' outcomes during a four-year follow-up. They based their death-risk survey on the health characteristics that seemed to predict death within four years.

"Even if somebody looks at their numbers and finds they have a 60 percent risk of death, there could be other mitigating factors," said co-author and VA researcher Dr. Kenneth Covinsky.

There are things you can do to improve your chances, he notes, such as quitting smoking or taking up exercise.

Of course, researchers add, the quiz isn't foolproof. Other experts note it ignores family history and is much less meaningful for those at the young end of the spectrum.

The researchers even warn, "Don't try this at home," saying a doctor can help you put things into perspective.

But for the curious, here it is. Good luck.

1. Age: 60-64 years, 1 point; 65-69, 2 points; 70-74, 3 points; 75-79, 4 points; 80-84, 5 points; 85 and older, 7 points.

2. Male or Female: Male 2 points.

3. Body-Mass Index: Less than 25 (normal weight or less), 1 point. (Calculate by multiplying height in inches times height in inches; then divide weight in pounds by that total; then multiply the total by 703.)

4. Diabetes: 2 points.

5. Cancer (excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points.

6. Chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home: 2 points.

7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.

8. Cigarette smoking in the past week: 2 points.

9. Difficulty bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, keeping track of expenses because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

11. Difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2 points.

12. Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a living-room chair because of a health problem: 1 point.

Score: 0 to 5 points, less than a 4 percent risk of dying within four years; 6-9 points, 15 percent risk; 10-13 points, 42 percent risk; 14 or more, 64 percent risk.

Note: Researchers say the 1-point penalty for having a body-mass index under 25 (normal weight or less) is based on findings that being underweight is a health risk for elderly people.