2006 outlook good for Utah

However, there are signals that the national economy is beginning to moderate, which could put the brakes on rate increases after January, said Sterling K. Jenson, regional managing director for Wells Capital Management.

"The Fed's kind of dealing with four issues, inflation of course being the prime concern," he said, also pointing to economic growth, housing and the leadership transition from Greenspan to Bernanke as factors.

"They're also looking at economic growth. And recently, we've seen economic growth begin to moderate somewhat, with housing softening in the last couple of months, (and) consumer spending slowing a bit. . . . Bernanke will come in, and certainly he wants to let the markets know that he's going to be as vigilant against inflation as Greenspan was. But I think he's going to be more data-dependent. He's going to look at the growth statistics, and see this moderation, and perhaps not necessarily continue the next rate hike in March."

Still, Jenson expects a strong year in 2006. Wells Capital predicts that corporate profits will see their 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit increases, that the market could see upwards of 15 percent gains, and that businesses will continue to spend — on capital, technology, mergers and acquisitions. Also, Jenson said he expects energy prices to mitigate somewhat by spring.

"We certainly think that this could be a solid year for us," Jenson said. "And when you combine solid growth in the U.S., with Japan, the Euro-zone, spectacular growth in many of the developing countries like China, India and Mexico, it seems like we might be entering kind of a golden era of global growth. . . . Maybe this is all 'Pollyanna,' but we think that this year we'll have more reason to cheer than to jeer."

All of which bodes well for Utah, Jenson said.

"Our recovery came a little behind the national recovery, and I think that even though we're seeing some slowdown nationally in some of the markets — in housing and such — we really haven't experienced much of a slowdown here, yet," Jenson said. "I think when you crank out 44,000 jobs in Utah, and have (3.9 percent total employment growth) versus the national growth of 1.5 percent, it just bodes really well for our local economy — and it's showing up in the revenues we're having."

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