2006 outlook good for Utah

Inflation bid a quiet adieu to what was a raucous 2005, rankled by high energy prices, war and wild weather.

And early 2006 data indicate another strong year for Utah, a Wells Fargo economist said Wednesday.

The U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday that its Consumer Price Index dipped (on a seasonally adjusted basis) by 0.1 percent in December. That followed a 0.6 percent drop in November and marked the first consecutive decline in consumer prices since 2003.

But the year as a whole saw a 3.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted) increase in prices, the Labor Department reported, which was the steepest since 2000 and 0.1 percentage point higher than 2004's 3.3 percent increase.

Inflation data for the Wasatch Front, usually prepared by Wells Fargo Bank, were not immediately available.

Economists, and the Labor Department, pointed to high energy prices as the weightiest factor in the mix. The department's 2005 energy index rose 17.1 percent, on the heels of a 16.6 percent increase the year before. That increase, in 2005, accounted for "about 40 percent of the overall advance in the CPI," the department reported.

Outside of food and energy — the more price-volatile commodities — the "core" CPI advanced 2.2 percent for 2005, which equalled 2004's core CPI increase, the Labor Department said.

The better-than-expected inflation news was offset by tech sector earnings disappointments when it came to Wednesday's stock market results. The tech-focused Nasdaq composite index fell 23.05, or 1 percent, to 2,279.64. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 41.46, or 0.38 percent, to 10,854.86, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 5.00, or 0.39 percent, to 1,277.93.

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to increase short-term interest rates again — for a 14th time — when it meets on Jan. 31. The Fed triggered a huge stock market rally in the first week of the new year when minutes of its December discussions indicated that the central bank was getting close to the end of its credit tightening campaign.

Economists are debating whether the Fed will increase rates a final time at its March 28 meeting — the first at which new Chairman Ben Bernanke, successor to Alan Greenspan, will preside.

"It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices," Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, told the Associated Press. "From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control."