Utah public schools' enrollment boom is on — and it's going to be an expensive one.

That's the word in a school-age population analysis presented Tuesday to the Public Education Appropriations Subcommittee.

"No matter how you sort of slice it, this leads to increased competition for dollars in this state," said report author Pam Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

State Associate Superintendent Patrick Ogden called the report sobering.

"I'm concerned income tax revenues may not be able to sustain the projected growth," he said. "Not only are the needs of children increasing, but expectations of the public are increasing in terms of accountability and expectations that all children are successful in schools."

Perlich's report came before a presentation on public schools' $2.3 billion base budget and Ogden's pleas for additional money to cover growth in several programs. Lawmakers this session are expected to decide how to allocate some $1 billion in extra revenue, including potential tax cuts and investments in state programs from public education to health and human services.

Utah's public school enrollment last year grew by almost 10,000, Perlich said, and this fall is expected to grow by another 14,000.

"I'm declaring the boom is on," she said.

It's a function of Utah's economy, creating an even greater than expected spike of workers moving here, and its fertility rate, the highest in the country. Most of those moving in are young, Perlich said, "and continue to have kids once they get here.

"Something in the water, I guess."

Utah's last baby boom was in the 1980s; students entering schools now are their "echo," expected to reverberate in annual enrollment gains greater than 10,000 perhaps through 2018.

Utah's school-age population, just over 500,000 now, is expected to hit the 700,000 mark sometime between 2014 and 2018, Perlich reported.

The boom also is expected to impact colleges and universities from about 2016 to 2025, according to the report.

So what does this all mean for public schools?

A lot of costs, and no guarantee that budgets can be covered, Perlich reported.

New students need schools to attend. But they also could bring population shifts in individual school districts, creating the need to close schools in neighborhoods with declining numbers of students and build new ones where the growth is, as already seen in the Jordan and Granite school districts.

Costs of educating children also are rising with technology needs, accountability requirements and more demand for services for English-language learners.

For instance, 20 percent of Utah's overall population growth in the 1990s is attributed to foreign-born immigrants, Perlich reports. Utah's high net migration also would have been negative without international immigrants, she said, citing Census reports.

Also, ethnic minorities represent 41 percent of Utah's overall population increase between 2000 and 2004. Of the 34,743 new students in Utah public schools between 2000 and 2005, 75 percent of them were ethnic minorities.

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