So far the Chinese have only been willing to act as a neutral broker as chair of the "six-party talks," cajoling both Bush and President Kim Jong Il of North Korea to sign up to a vague set of principles' for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. "What they won't do is threaten the North with any pain," like cutting oil supplies, noted a senior administration official involved in the talks. "So we're in a kind of stalemate."

For the Chinese, stalemate may be fine. While they worry about nuclear weapons, they fear a collapse of the North Korean regime even more. That could send starving North Koreans over the border and bring South Korean and American troops right up to the Chinese border. The result, some administration officials concede, is that while the United States remains tied up in Iraq, the North's weapons program can sputter forward.

There's a similar problem with Iran. Bush has made it clear that he wants the U.N. Security Council to consider sanctions against Tehran for deceiving nuclear inspectors. But the Chinese buy much oil from Iran, and they could undermine any overt pressure on the Iranians. And as Bush himself acknowledged before he left Washington, making a public case for acting against Iran may not be an option.

"People will say, 'If we're trying to make the case on Iran, well, the intelligence failed in Iraq, therefore, how can we trust the intelligence in Iran?' " he asked, without really answering his own question. — David E. Sanger

MIDDLE EAST — EXPLORING POCKETBOOK ISSUES

For all the talk about the need to instill democratic freedoms, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Bashar Assad of Syria have bet they can continue to hold tight to the reins of power, if they can just improve their countries' economies.

Leaders like Mubarak and Assad, who have been slow to respond to internal pressures, recognize that unemployment and poverty pose a greater threat to their power than any call for political opening.

And so there has been talk, and some action, aimed at economic reform, and there will be more in 2006.

In Egypt, for example, the president has just reappointed Ahmed Nazif as prime minister, returning to power ministers who have pushed through changes to open up the economy, and the new year will see increasing efforts at privatization. In Syria, officials are again beginning to talk about their five-year plan, which would chart a course toward a market-style economy.