2006: New year offers fresh start

Before he retreated behind the fences of his ranch in Crawford, Texas, to ring out a bruising year, President Bush made it clear that even with three years to go, he already regards his presidency as a big one in the sweep of American history.

He insists that his real motive in conducting the war in Iraq is to democratize one of the least democratic corners of the Earth. He regularly quotes Harry Truman, who rebuilt Japan and Germany while remaking American national security policy from the ground up. Several of his speeches have deliberately included Churchillian echoes about never surrendering to terrorists and achieving total victory, along with made-for-television imagery to drive home the message.

Bush, of course, is trying to give larger meaning to a war whose unpopularity dragged down his presidency last year. But at moments he often seems to also be talking directly to historians, tilting the pinball machine of presidential legacy. It may not be too early: The year 2006, many in the White House believe, will cement the story line of the Bush presidency for the ages.

The new year offers us all, presidents and people on the street, a chance to analyze, hope, plan and resolve.

Because of Republican troubles, Democrats see a potential for gains in the U.S. House and Senate.

Business and consumers are looking for new energy sources.

The world is keeping its eye on the rise of China, North Korea, the complexities of the Middle East and other hotspots.

And, we wonder, what's next in the spheres of health, science and technology?

Here, then, is an early look at what's on the horizon in 2006.

THE BUSH LEGACY: 2006 IS SO YESTERDAY

There is growing acknowledgment, perhaps premature, that the historic standing of Bush will rise or fall with the fate of Iraq.

But presidential legacies are complicated — a point proven by Harry Truman himself, whose reputation has aged so well that it is almost forgotten that he left office mired in the intelligence failures, early mistakes and the ultimate muddle of the Korean War.

"They have learned to love the Truman analogies in this White House because it's a reminder that legacies are built out of events that happen long after most presidents leave office, when we see things through the lens of later events and one or two ideas look like big turning points," said Richard Norton Smith, who heads the Lincoln Library in Springfield, Ill. Only in retrospect do we regard Truman's decision to integrate the armed forces as a precursor to the civil rights movement, something he did while containing Stalin and establishing NATO.