Democrats may catch GOP sleeping in 2006

If Jacob gets close to Cannon at the polls — or defeats him — and if Hatch falters in his re-election efforts, look for a sea-change in Utah GOP politics: Incumbents will no longer be safe from serious intra-party challengers.

• Utahns will get a big tax cut next year.

The question will be how big, and whether the GOP-dominated Legis- lature will have the moral and fiscal courage to finally remove the sales tax from unprepared food.

As of this writing, the House and Senate Republicans are at a stand-off.

The House GOP caucus has more than 38 votes (a majority in the 75-member House) for a $230 million tax cut.

That's a big number, greater than twice the previous largest tax cut for Utahns. And considering that all of the House Republicans are up for re-election in 2006, reaching for such a large number could be grandstanding.

Senate Republicans haven't even named a number yet, leaving Huntsman — whose recommended budget for fiscal 2006-2007 contains a $60 million tax cut — looking a little weak.

The state budget has nearly doubled in a decade. It has tripled in 15 years, outgrowing inflation and population growth over the same period.

While Utah continues to be ranked as one of the best managed states in the country, it is still embarrassing for so-called conservatives to face their party delegates — most who really are conservatives — with such government growth.

Huntsman, who is not up for election next year, says his budget, while growing to $9.6 billion, contains only about 200 new state government positions, and so is responsible considering the growth in the number of public and higher education students, demands on Human Services and so on.

We'll see how GOP legislators with an eye toward their re-elections and Huntsman grapple with tax cuts. And whether the much-hated food tax really does come off.

The 2006 Legislature, which starts in three weeks, is prologue to legislative elections later in the year. Democrats hope these off-year elections can be a repeat of 1986, when Democrats caught Republicans sleeping and grabbed 13 more House seats and made gains in the state Senate.

I don't see such big gains for the minority Democrats next year, but if Republicans get in a messy intraparty fight over tax cuts, and deliver less than expected returns, Democrats may have an opening.

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Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com