With such hardening of opinion on both sides, where do we go now? Economic packages suggested by the Europeans have failed to deter the Iranian regime from its present course. A suggestion that Iran's uranium enrichment processing could be undertaken in Russia but only to enrichment levels for fuel, and not military use, seems to have gone nowhere. If the discussions between the European nations and Iran fail to produce any more than they already have, the next step would be for Iran's intransigence to be brought before the United Nations Security Council. Theoretically the council could impose punitive sanctions on Iran, but council members like Russia and China have substantial economic interests in Iran. The Security Council might be as reluctant to take forceful action against Iran as it was in Iraq, despite a string of Security Council resolutions taking Iraq to task.

Remaining diplomatic options thus seem limited, and military action seems unrealistic. Militarily the United States is fully committed in Iraq. While patience with Iran is running out in Europe, there is little stomach there for a military expedition to Iran. The nation probably most threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran with an unpredictable president would be Israel. Iran has missiles capable of reaching Israel, and any hint that Iran is capable of putting a nuclear warhead on one of them would certainly cause any Israeli cabinet to ponder a pre-emptive Israeli strike. But action by Israel against a Muslim state like Iran would touch off a firestorm in the Middle East.

One imponderable is the extent to which Ahmadinejad can be reined in by cooler heads in Tehran. Various Iranian spokesmen have been quick to tone down, "amplify" or otherwise minimize his controversial remarks. While he may have support from hard-liners in parliament, other parliamentarians have crossed political swords with him. For example, for the important job of oil minister, parliament rejected his first three choices on grounds that they were technically unqualified. In addition to this, two-thirds of Iran's population is under 35, and unemployment in their ranks is high. To hold their support, Ahmadinejad will have to come through with jobs and economic prosperity. This could be impossible to do if he leads Iran into isolation from the outside world.

The United States already is dealing with another unpredictable leader with nuclear pretensions, namely North Korea's Kim Jong Il. But while Kim is motivated by a variety of factors, Ahmadinejad seems to be on a single-minded crusade fomented by the perverse and hateful interpretation of Islamic lore that fuels the suicide bomber and terrorist.

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John Hughes is editor and chief operating officer of the Deseret Morning News. He is a former editor of the Christian Science Monitor, which syndicates this column. E-mail: hughes@desnews.com