Jobless rate drops
Economist says news may lift holiday spending
"It's good news, and it's a good time of the year to be having good news," said Mark Knold, senior economist with the department. "There is a psychological factor how people feel about the economy translates to how they spend at Christmas. And they should be feeling pretty good, despite hurricanes and other things we've had this year.
"Gas prices are down, jobs gains are good. We're getting some wage growth. There isn't anything immediately that should be telling consumers, 'Don't be buying that gift,' or making them feel gun-shy about unloading for Christmas this year."
Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the nation's unemployment rate for November was unchanged at 5 percent. About 7.6 million Americans were without work.
About 49,900 Utahns were unemployed last month, compared to 61,000 in November 2004, the Utah Department of Workforce Services reported. At this time last year, the state's jobless rate was 5.1 percent.
Utah's total employment gain, the year-over change in the number of nonfarm wage and salaried jobs, was 3.6 percent in November, the department found. October's revised rate also was 3.6 percent.
Construction and business services posted the strongest results, with construction adding 9,700 new jobs in the year-over period.
"The volume of growth (in the construction industry) has increased steadily as 2005 has progressed and is now the highest rate of construction growth 12.8 percent seen in 10 years," Knold wrote in the department's report. "Along with solid housing growth, there are commercial and industrial projects aplenty."
And while 2006 may not be able to keep up that kind of growth Knold said the nearly 13 percent rate is "unsustainable" Utahns can expect healthy growth in the industry.
"The investment activity (in the construction sector) shows the bullish nature that businesses have when they look at Utah," Knold said. "This building is being done in anticipation of future needs and future growth. They're looking at this as a very healthy environment, a healthy state, and they're building in response to that."
Meanwhile, the business services sector added 7,800 jobs over the past year, representing a 5.5 percent rate of growth. Knold noted in the department's report that November's findings show slight slowing in the sector, but that "is not an emerging sign of weakening in this industry."
Instead, Knold wrote, "it is a reflection of comparing against a strengthening year-ago performance."
The trade, transportation and utilities sector reported 6,800 new jobs during the year-over period, while the manufacturing sector added 1,900 jobs.
Looking ahead, Knold said he sees only one hurdle in the near future: natural gas prices.
"We'll get some high heating bills," he said. "But fortunately, we've got some heavy counterbalances, with gas(oline) prices coming down.
"The only hurdle I see is natural gas prices. You won't really feel them until you get your January bill. The December bill won't be fun, but the real shock won't come until January. But we'll have gotten through the Christmas shopping season by then."
E-mail: jnii@desnews.com
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