Growth in student numbers means growth in the bottom line of the state public education budget. For 2007, The state Board of Education is asking the Utah Legislature for a total budget of $3.1 billion.

The state board wants a 5 percent increase in the value of the weighted pupil unit, the state's basic per-pupil funding formula. That's a cool $101.6 million right there. Add to that an additional 14,700 students next school year, which will require another $67 million.

Healthy revenue projections suggest lawmakers should be able to appropriate reasonable increases in ongoing school funding as well as provide some one-time money for specific programs and initiatives. But some long-term financial projections suggest that state revenues may not keep pace with needs within the next decade.

Former Utah Gov. Olene Walker's "Recommendations on a Tax Structure for Utah's Future" cautioned that the Uniform School Fund would grow faster than economy "but with extreme risk and potential volatility." The General Fund, primarily funded by sales tax, was also expected to grow but "suffers from a deteriorating base."

Given that Walker's term in office was brief, her administration's tax reform initiatives were basically shelved. A legislative task force on tax reform empaneled earlier this year developed some of its own recommendations but it did not grapple with the entire state tax scheme as the Walker plan did.

At the risk of sounding like Chicken Little, lawmakers need to take a long-term view of taxation and funding mechanisms. The Walker plan considered corporate income tax as a "very risky revenue source for education." The group also termed personal income tax as "risky" because some people aren't paying their taxes, they're establishing aggressive tax shelters or they're indexing of federal exemptions. These issues exist whether the economy is strong or in a downturn.

The Walker team forecast that growth in the public school system eventually would outpace the revenues if Utah did not reform its tax structure. At this point, only piecemeal reform has been recommended.

This is not to suggest the Walker plan was the end-all in state tax policy. But it did provide convincing arguments when it comes to public school funding and the anticipated growth in the system. Lawmakers need to undertake careful study of these trends and plan accordingly.