From Deseret News archives:

High gas prices going higher

And they're fueling boost in consumer prices

Published: Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2005 9:18 a.m. MDT
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In the coming weeks, Matthews predicted that prices at the pump may increase by 10 cents or more — which, he said, will bite into consumers' pocketbooks on a broader scale, beyond energy and transportation, and impact the economy as a whole.

"Currently, we're in the 50 percent to 60 percent range above where we were last year," Matthews said. "I just can't see how that can not have some impact in terms of consumer spending. And ultimately, if it has an impact on consumer spending, it will have an impact on business sales, perhaps profitability, and we may even see some adverse impact in terms of future hiring."

The futures market does not suggest a quick resolution to the situation, according to Matthews, nor a drop below a $60 per barrel price tag for crude oil anytime soon.

"So, I guess the basic message is to get used to it," Matthews said. "There doesn't seem to be any quick and easy way to envision a return to those normality levels we were used to for so many years."

The problem is a mirror image of the energy crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s, Matthews said. While the spikes in the 1980s — when the price of crude oil in 2005 dollars neared $100 per barrel — were spurred by supply shortages, today's climb centers around surging demand from emerging economies combined with seemingly impervious consumption levels at home.

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"There is no excess capacity in our refineries at this point, so it will be difficult to alter the present situation significantly, unless we have a downturn in demand," Matthews said. "Which is not a pleasant thought, because a downturn in demand would mean slower growth in the economy, the world economy, which is not exactly what we would desire."

Crude oil also seems to be dousing the stock market, said Sterling Jenson, senior managing director for Wells Capital Management.

Stocks plunged Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 120.93, or 1.14 percent, to 10,513.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 14.53, or 1.18 percent, to 1,219.34, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 29.98, or 1.38 percent, to 2,137.06.

"For five years now, we have been treading sideways in the stock market," Jenson said, noting that in 1999, the Dow closed the year at 11,497.

"We can only hope that we might get back to that level at the end of this year, six years after the fact," Jenson said. Which, if energy prices remain at current levels (or increase), is unlikely.

Wells Capital Management had expected the market would gain 10 percent by year's end, but it has given many caveats about energy prices. Jenson repeated those warnings Tuesday, with emphasis.

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