No GOP rival yet in 2nd District

"I really haven't heard of anyone" talking about running against Matheson, said Salt Lake County GOP chairman James Evans, a former state senator. "I know that Winston Wilkinson has decided not to run."

Wilkinson, a former county councilman, was one of a dozen Republicans who ran for the 2nd District in 2002, believing after the GOP-controlled Utah Legislature redistricted Matheson into heavily Republican rural Utah that the then-freshman Democrat would be easy pickings.

State Rep. LaVar Christensen's name has been floated this year. The Sandy Republican, known for his conservative viewpoints, said he is considering the 2nd District.

"But it is too early, premature" for him to commit, Christensen said.

He's also looking at running for re-election to his House District 48 seat or for the Utah Senate, should state Sen. Al Mansell, R-Sandy, retire next year.

Even though Christensen hasn't raised a dime for a U.S. House race yet, "I think the finances are manageable; I could hit that pace" of raising $1 million or more in a year, he said.

But others aren't so sure, and the fact that no one has come forward a year from Election Day against a Democrat — in a district that historically votes nearly 60 percent Republican — is a bit odd.

When asked if Republicans are just afraid of him now, Matheson responded: "The longer I'm in office, the tougher it is for anyone to make a competitive race" against him. Exit polls show that even "20 percent of hard Republicans voted for me" in 2004, Matheson said with a bit of pride.

Still, he takes nothing for granted. And Matheson expects national Republicans to come after him again.

Patterson said between the National Republican Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, $692,000 was spent in anti-Matheson TV and radio ads in 2004. Including independent expenditures by GOP committees in favor of Swallow, $1.2 million from national GOP groups came into Utah's 2nd District last year, Patterson said.

"That's a lot of money," comparative to what GOP groups put into other "contested" U.S. House races last year, he added.

"There are only about 25 or 30 seats" out of 435 House members where either a challenging Republican or Democrat has a real shot at victory, said Patterson. Accordingly, the national party committees have few places where their money can make a difference.

Whether national Republicans put Utah's 2nd District in that category in 2006 depends on who their candidate is, says Patterson. In 2002 and 2004, some Republicans thought winning the 2nd District "was a slam dunk," but Matheson's fund-raising, campaigning and constituent services "is making them take a long look" at the possibility of an upset victory here next year.

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