It looks like long-time U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch will have a credible challenge for his seat next year within his own party.

Or will he?

This week Utah House Majority Whip Steve Urquhart, R-St. George, announced that he's running against Hatch next year.

But the candidate filing deadline isn't until mid-March 2006, and a lot can happen before then.

Hatch, his campaign manager, Dave Hansen, and other Hatch supporters have more than Urquhart to worry about, however.

That's because Urquhart may be only the tip of the iceberg — a stalking horse that breaks the wall of unhappy GOP conservatives who would like to see Hatch retire, one way or another.

Hatch, of course, won't quit on his own. Always a driven man, Hatch lives to be a senator. While 71, Hatch is full of vigor, quick of mind and always on the move.

Other leading Utah Republicans have looked longingly at the U.S. Senate, but they know the only hope they have of an open seat is if Sen. Bob Bennett decides to retire in 2010 or Hatch gets hit by a bus.

While in some states it might be OK to challenge a sitting senator — Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., always has a challenge from his right — in Utah it is a rare thing.

And usually the challenger here is seen as a kind of nut case, someone from the far right of the party, a group of people rarely satisfied with anyone or anything.

But Urquhart isn't of that mold.

And what happened to former U.S. Rep. Merrill Cook in 2000 could be keeping Hatch and Hansen up nights.

If you recall, Cook had had some unfavorable press; had acted in some odd ways. And his popularity was waning in mid-1999 as Cook was looking at his second re-election effort in 2000.

That August, a young guy named Mark Emerson, a former state GOP executive director and then-chief-of-staff to Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, (Cannon had had some public and private spats with Cook) said he was thinking of running against Cook in 2000.

Emerson's talk opened the floodgates.

Before long, five credible Republicans talked about running against Cook, and two millionaires finally did file against him.

But Emerson himself got out of the race just six weeks after he formally announced his candidacy in February 2000. Emerson's tough anti-Cook talk did, however, allow other, more viable candidates, to step forward. The stigma of daring to challenge a powerful incumbent was broken.

Derek Smith and Cook came out of the 2000 state GOP convention. Smith, who put nearly $1 million of his own money into the race, beat Cook several months later in the Republican primary.

Smith went on to lose that fall to Democrat Jim Matheson, who has held the 2nd District seat since.