Could Hatch finally be unseated in next election?

The test for Urquhart is that if, by October or so, he hasn't raised much money and doesn't have a significant number of signed endorsers, including significant leaders, then his campaign is going nowhere.

As for any fears of being punished for taking on a powerful incumbent in his own party, Urquhart just smiles and says his favorite movie is "Cool Hand Luke." "The absolutely worst case scenario for me would be that in the future I get to spend winters in St. George with my family."

Pignanelli: "Orrin Hatch is the poster child for term limits." "This is one Republican who will never vote for Hatch again!" These are a sampling of comments regarding Utah's senior senator I overheard from my conservative friends . . . in 1993. The Utah GOP is schizophrenic about Hatch, grumbling and complaining about the man every 5 1/2 years. Then they warmly embrace him at election time for another stint in Washington, D.C.

Hatch is the hardest working politician in the West. His re-election campaign started last year and he will raise several million dollars by early next year. The media will shower him with attention as the defender of the conservative faith in the upcoming struggle to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. For decades, Hatch has curried favor through conferences benefiting women and the elderly while directing massive contributions to local charities. If re-elected, he will become chairman of the Senate Finance Committee — a position of incredible power. Yet, Hatch may be vulnerable.

I give kudos to LaVarr for releasing this interesting development. We politicos knew that Urquhart harbored ambitions for Congress or state office (a requirement of legislative service). But we were unaware that gallons of testosterone are coursing through his veins — much needed to challenge Utah's 800-pound political gorilla.

Urquhart, a rural conservative with a high-tech focus, promises to be a real nightmare for Hatch. His oratory and political skills will help him capitalize on the animosity some Republican insiders have toward Hatch. As LaVarr notes, Utah's convention process provides an opportunity for candidates with limited resources to mount personal, but formidable, campaigns. All Urquhart needs do is convince 2,104 delegates at the Republican Convention that he should be in the U.S. Senate, and Hatch will be in early retirement. This is not a far-fetched scenario. In 2000, political newcomer Greg Hawkins almost forced Hatch into a primary election (and the St. George legislator is not a novice). But if Urquhart falls one delegate short, the well-oiled Hatch political machine will spend millions to stomp all over him.

All this is good news to Pete Ashdown, the Democratic contender expending considerable time and energy in his efforts against Hatch. In 2000, Democrats offered Senate Minority Leader Scott Howell who possessed the perfect Utah profile: active LDS, successful in business, moderate in politics, beautiful wife and family, a charming personality. Although a credible alternative to Hatch, Howell only attracted 32 percent of Utahns. Thus, a bruising convention battle between Hatch and Urquhart offers an important dynamic Ashdown needs. Strong incumbents or successful challengers who suffered bitter inter-party challenges are more likely to lose in the final election. With his profile as a successful high technology entrepreneur and outsider to the nasty business of politics, Ashdown could offer comfort to Utahns disgruntled with GOP warfare.

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Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. A former candidate for Salt Lake mayor, Pignanelli served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com