A natural disaster of sorts could be headed for Utah.

A "tsunami" could strike if one of Utah's major military bases makes Defense Secretary Donald's Rumsfeld's list of proposed base closures, says Anthony Principi, chairman of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission.

"The ripples of the proposals the secretary of defense will soon present to our nation, and to us, will be tsunamis in the communities they hit," Principi said Tuesday in the commission's first official meeting Tuesday on Capitol Hill.

In his first day on the job Tuesday, former Utah Congressman Jim Hansen learned of the power he holds as one of nine base closure commissioners.

Commissioners were sworn in and sat through a history lesson about the base-closing process and a status report of current national security threats.

Rumsfeld must release the list of bases he proposes closing by May 16. After that, Hansen and the other commissioners will spend months visiting and evaluating the bases. After that, the commission will ultimately decide which bases make the cut.

Hill Air Force Base, Tooele Army Depot and Dugway Proving Ground could all be closed or reduced in size. The Defense Department plans on closing or scaling back as many as 20 percent of its 425 major military installations.

Hansen could not be reached for comment Tuesday.

Four previous base closure rounds saved taxpayers $29 billion, according to a General Accounting Office report released Tuesday. In 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1995, BRAC eliminated or realigned 451 installations.

"This is the last of five rounds, and there is no easy pickin's out there," said Vickie McCall, president of the Utah Defense Alliance. "Every base that is on that list has been determined to be a really good base. It's not going to be easy."

Some Utah leaders think Hansen will use his position on BRAC to serve as an ally for Utah's bases.

During his 22 years in the House, Hansen defended Hill during the four previous BRAC rounds. He often used his position as senior member of the House Armed Services Committee to protect Hill's interest.

But Hansen has repeatedly said he must now do what's best for the entire United States military, not just the state of Utah.

If asked, Hansen said he will recuse himself from any vote on closing Utah's military bases.

Congressional sources said the BRAC list could be released late next week.

Once Rumsfeld's list is released, the Utah Defense Alliance and the state's congressional delegation will "start the second round of our BRAC reaction," Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, said.

"It's going to give us about four or five roads to take down, one could be terribly nasty and the others could be enjoyable," Bishop said. "No one knows what that will be until the actual report is out."