As much as $135 million might have to be cut from Utah programs for the poor in the next five years if what local and national human services policy analysts call a "disastrous" U.S. House spending plan goes through.

"It's wrong to say this is just speculative," said Sharon Parrott, an author of a report released Wednesday by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Parrott discussed the findings of state-by-state impacts of federal spending plans detailed in the report during a national teleconference with reporters.

On the same day, the leading local research and advocacy group Utah Issues released its projections of how Utah's most vulnerable populations would fare under the spending proposals that reduce domestic programs, increase money for homeland security and slash taxes for the nation's wealthiest.

And, they point out, the spending plans do not reduce the federal deficit.

Utah's potential impact under the House plan includes:

• $85 million to $113 million in reductions to Medicaid, which serves 189,000 children, elderly and people with disabilities

• Up to $26 million in reductions in food stamps. Roughly 123,000 individuals receive food stamp assistance

• $12.3 million in reductions to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and child care funding, impacting 123,000 parents and children.

Those are federal programs that participate on a "match" basis with states, with states chipping in a certain amount to then draw down federal dollars.

Advocates say decreases of this magnitude would cripple programs that truly help the working poor. In a worst case scenario, states would have to decrease benefits across the board for all, or new rules might come into play that bump people off eligibility lists altogether.

The crafting of the cuts is something Congress will wrangle over in the next weeks and could be implemented in a number of ways ultimately. But advocates warn the potential for drastic impacts on low-income families is already clear.

"The states stand to lose $4 billion in the next five years in key human services funding," Parrott said.

On top of the impact to state budget coffers and recipients of state services, Congress is also contemplating reductions in other programs that affect the low income directly — such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Supplemental Security Income Program for the elderly and disabled poor.

An estimated 129,000 working families in Utah receive the EITC, which provides low-wage workers with tax relief. Another 21,000 Utahns rely on SSI benefits — which cover living expenses for the elderly, disabled and children.