It seems Hill Air Force Base's chances of staying open are getting better every day.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on Tuesday backed down from earlier estimates that as many as 25 percent of all domestic military bases could be closed or realigned in the upcoming round of base closings.

For the past few years, Rumsfeld and senior leaders in his staff have said there is a 20-25 percent excess capacity at the country's 425 military bases — putting about 100 bases at risk for closure or realignment. Those figures date back to the Clinton administration.

But Rumsfeld scaled back those estimates at a Pentagon news conference Tuesday.

"It looks like the actual number will be less than the lower end of that range. How much less remains to be seen."

That's good news for Utah and Hill Air Force Base, supporters of the base said Tuesday.

"Our odds are a whole lot better than they were," said Rick Mayfield, executive director for the Utah Defense Alliance.

Rumsfeld's estimate dropped because the thousands of U.S. troops returning from abroad will need a place to go, he said.

Rumsfeld defended the mission of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission, which must ultimately decide the fate of all domestic military bases.

"BRAC is a good thing," Rumsfeld said, according to a transcript of the press conference. "It says to the taxpayers of America, 'By golly, we care about your dollars and we're going to see that the dollars are spent in an intelligent way on things that are actually needed, rather than wasted funds.' "

Former U.S. Rep. Jim Hansen, R-Utah, is awaiting formal confirmation from the Senate as a member of the nine-member closure commission. He said that although shutting down bases is heartbreaking, in the end it is the best thing for the U.S. military.

"I agree with the president, and I agree with Rumsfeld — we do have too many bases, and bases are extremely costly to keep up, so get rid of 'em," Hansen told the Deseret Morning News. "We still need bases, we just maybe don't need bases to keep up and put millions of dollars in that are not good for the war fighter, so to speak."

The upcoming BRAC round is supposed to save U.S. taxpayers $7 billion annually.

But Utah Defense Alliance President Vicki McCall said she wasn't sure how the Defense Department can still save such a large amount of money and shut down fewer bases.

Hill actually might end up getting hurt in the process, McCall said.

"If you cut fewer smaller ones, that means more of the bigger ones will have to go," McCall said. "I don't think there is any safety net there."

No matter how you evaluate the numbers, Hill supporters are still forging ahead with plans to fight against closure.

"We are moving ahead with the same game plan, but you still have a risk," Mayfield said. "Most of us have been fairly optimistic that the base is in such good shape and does such good work that it would not be beneficial to close it. But you never know."

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E-mail: ldethman@desnews.com