But when new criteria were analyzed — centered around the chance of a crash actually releasing radiation — the danger dropped, according to the board.

The nature of F-16 flights through Skull Valley, "and the data that can be gleaned from the reports of prior F-16 crashes worldwide in circumstances akin to Skull Valley operations," show an 80 percent likelihood that the speed and angle of a crash are such that it would not breach the casks.

That dropped the chance of releasing radiation to "somewhat less" than the criteria, the report adds. Instead of a chance of four in a million possibility, and instead of the cutoff of one in a million, the likelihood dropped to 0.86 in a million.

That scenario was not likely enough to ban the project, according to the board.

Board members only studied the possibility of an Air Force plane accidentally slamming into the site while flying to or from the nearby Utah Test and Training Range. They explicitly refused to consider the possibility of a terrorist attack.

Appeals likely

About 30 pages of the findings are being kept secret because of security concerns. The full report was deemed the "official" version while the one available to the public was termed the "publicly available version." State officials were awaiting a copy of the official report.

The decision itself indicates that a court appeal seems likely, whichever way the commission ultimately rules. The appeal would be either to the U.S. 10th Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver or the Circuit Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C.

Bennett said he "kind of expected this." He is heartened that the dissenter on the board is its expert on radiation issues. That will help in any appeal, he said.

Other avenues the state has to fight the plant are through an appeal to the NRC itself, or to courts, he added. The Bureau of Land Management "has not granted right of way over BLM land," he said.

Also, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, which has a say on what happens on reservation land, "has not blessed this. There are a number of avenues still open."

The state is disappointed but "undaunted," said Mike Lee, general counsel to Gov. Jon M. Huntsman Jr. The state, he says, will "use all means at our disposal to keep spent nuclear rods from ever entering our state's boundaries."

Utah may ask the board to reconsider or appeal to the NRC, he said. If the NRC ends up issuing PFS a license despite Utah's objections, "then we will seek redress in the courts."

Lee added, "We intend to use every tool therein to fight this battle."

Hatch said he was disappointed with the decision.