"There are no guarantees that money's going to come back to public education," Ogden said. "Are they going to increase the value of the WPU? Are they going to fund the student achievement programs we've asked for? The subcommittee didn't recommend any of those things . . . , so what do we have to hang our hats on?"

Meanwhile, the Carson Smith Special Needs Scholarships' fiscal note calls for $2.6 million in general funds. It also requires a Minimum School Program reduction of $903,300, based on the WPU concept. The net price tag: $1.7 million next fiscal year. But Newbold indicates all that could change. She plans to seek $1.4 million, not $2.6 million, in general funds for the bill. That would mean a smaller WPUs-based reduction, because fewer students would qualify for the voucher.

But Ogden insists the bill requires no cuts at all. Special education funding lags two years, so there would be no savings until fiscal year 2008. Reducing the budget before then would result in red ink.

Some, however, say schools might not feel a difference.

"My strong guess is (we would use savings to) increase the WPU even more than we have," said House Majority Whip Steve Urquhart, R-St. George. "It makes for a weird situation where you're talking about cutting public education when we're pouring millions of dollars into public education."

Indeed, the Minimum School Program lawmakers passed last week represented a 5 percent funding increase and a 3.5 percent WPU hike. A second public school funding bill is expected before the session ends March 2.

Complicated decision

There's another piece to this the puzzle:

What if the fiscal note is overstated?

"There would be a reduction in (schools') budget," Kjar said. "If the kids don't go, they would be underfunded."

Kjar's estimates are driven by "switch rates," or guesses on how many kids would leave public schools for private schools under a tax credit. The more switchers, the greater the savings. Fewer switchers result in costs, analyses have shown.

Switch rates are an easy target for critics. After all, how can anyone foresee another's personal choice?

Still, inaccurate guesses would impact public schools perhaps only temporarily. If they're conservative, which school choice lobbyists believe, public education would get more WPUs than it's supposed to. If the guesses are liberal, legislators next year could give a supplemental appropriation to fill in holes. Since that action would come in the middle of the budget year, schools might not even feel a blip.

"If we ever reduced money enough it's seen in the classroom, I think people would be concerned," Newbold said. "I don't think there will be a noticeable change."

But there might be a ripple by the time the money reaches Utah's 40 school districts.