Kjar's fiscal analyses show tuition tax credits would save the state a few million bucks next year. But the public education budget would also have to be cut $11.3 million as part of budget balancing, he said.

Public schools are largely funded through what are called weighted pupil units. The $2.2 billion Minimum School Program Act includes thousands of WPUs for basic education needs, including teachers, class-size reduction and special education.

WPUs given are tied to the number of students in each program. It's complex, but the premise is this: If a school has 500 students, it gets 500 WPUs from the state. If it has just 400 students next year, it gets only 400 WPUs.

That concept plays out in the bills' fiscal notes.

Kjar estimates 3,734 students are expected to take a tuition tax credit. So the schools' budget would have to be cut by the corresponding number of WPUs (443 would be current private school kids and were not weighed in that part of the analysis).

"Yes, there is a reduction in appropriations for students who are not there," Ferrin said. "And by the same token, there is a reduction in revenues for the folks claiming a tax credit, and the difference is what the analyst highlights."

'Weird situation'

Kjar estimates the tuition tax credits bill would reduce income tax revenue — all of which goes to education — by $6.4 million next year. It also calls for $1.5 million in general funds to compensate districts hurt by the credits.

But that revenue loss and spending would be offset by "reduced appropriations to the Minimum School Program for students leaving the public education system to go to private school," the fiscal note states.

That means taking $11.3 million out of the Minimum School Program, Kjar said.

Still, all said, the state next year actually saves $3.4 million in would-be education costs.

"The result is a savings to the Uniform School Fund, which I would maintain is savings that could be spent nowhere but on education, and I would argue it's going to be spent on public education," Ferrin said.

But state associate superintendent Patrick Ogden is not so trusting.

He notes more income tax revenues, reserved for public education until a 1996 constitutional amendment, are going to colleges and universities — from $89 million last year to $126 million set for next year, with another budget round to go.