Economists recruited by a top public school boss on Monday poked holes in a study by Utah State University researchers showing tuition tax credits could save the state perhaps hundreds of millions, or even a billion dollars.

Some indicated Utah actually could end up "subsidizing people who would have already gone" to public schools regardless of a tuition tax credit, said Pam Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Monday's meeting to discuss the new findings comes two weeks before the 2005 Legislature opens its session. Tuition tax credits is expected to be one of the hottest political fights, with a state-funded USU study — and the study reviewers' dissenting opinions — likely to be in the middle of it.

The State Office of Education did not invite to the meeting the USU study's authors, political science professor Roberta Herzberg and Chris Fawson, economics professor and vice provost for academic and international affairs. Spokesman Mark Peterson noted the pair addressed the State Board of Education last month.

Herzberg lamented not being able to participate in an academic discussion with the review group, but wasn't surprised.

"The fact is, nobody asks us. We don't really (get to) have the argument with the people who seem to want to have the argument," she said. "I don't think most of this is about wanting to understand . . . . My sense is it's about politics that started before we started the study."

Tuition tax credits have come before the Legislature four consecutive years. Debates have been controversial. Public school officials decry tuition tax credits philosophically and because they fear they would drain money for schools. School choice advocates believe they will empower parents, reduce class size and save state dollars.

Legislators last year set aside $150,000 for a neutral study of the economic impacts. Herzberg and Fawson got the contract for a little less, and presented findings at a Legislative Management Committee last November.

They told lawmakers tuition tax credits of either $1,000 or $2,000, as sought in last year's bill, under several scenarios would likely save the state money.

But numbers in the study appeared odd to Associate State Superintendent Patrick Ogden. He invited economists and finance experts to review the study, for free.

"We're looking at this with an open mind, but a skeptical eye," Ogden said. "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. And this sounds too good to be true."