Expect a good year for water — really

Published: Tuesday, Nov. 30, 2004 5:43 p.m. MST
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Winter does not begin, officially, for another four weeks. But already the winter snowpack is so substantial that experts predict Utah will have a fine runoff next year.

"It just couldn't be better," said Mark Eubank, KSL meteorologist.

The amount of snowfall that has blanketed the Beehive State so far is fabulous. The mountain accumulations, he said, indicate "about a 90 percent chance that the end of the season will be normal or above — and that's at the end of May."

"This is the best that we've seen in years," Eubank added.

Randy Julander, snow survey supervisor for the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service's Utah headquarters, agreed. "We're doing very well so far," he said.

He definitely is happy about the snowfall, he said. It's been some time since the figures have been so good.

The snowpack "has some unbelievable spots in it."

A snow measurement site called Midway Valley, above Cedar City, has an astonishing 25.1 inches of snow-water equivalent, he said. The average for April 1, at the peak of the snowpack season, is 27 inches.

Speaking of the latest measurement, Julander said, "That's 95 percent of the year-end total."

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If the worst likely snowpack accumulation took place until the end of the winter, he added, "that site will still finish at well above average" — in fact, it would measure something like 130 percent of normal.

But if average snow amounts fall in the mountains near Cedar City for the rest of the season, Julander added, the site will rank "in the top 10 percent of snowpack years" for that locality.

An oddity of the snowpack so far this year is that the extraordinary levels are in the high elevations. "The low elevation snowpack across the state is pretty close to average," Julander said.

Before the Thanksgiving weekend storm, many low elevations did not have much snow, but now they are around normal for this time of year.

But in the high mountains, some snowfields were measured at 150 percent, 200 percent and sometimes 500 percent of normal. The deeper snow is toward the southern part of the state, which was hit hard by the six-year drought.

High-elevation accumulations will contribute their water to the state's reservoirs , when the spring runoff takes place.

"We really like to see a tremendous mid-elevation snowpack, because that's where a huge chunk of water comes from," Julander said.

This early in the season, any outcome is possible for the mid- and low-level accumulations. But, Julander added, "As we look at the high elevations, they look really good."

Utah is on track for a fine runoff, he noted.

Meanwhile, skiers and ski resorts have great snow, and the rest of the state has not had to shovel much of the white stuff.

"We'll see how it all plays out," Julander concluded. "You know, we still have four months of snow-accumulation season in front of us."

Eubank said that in the past, an early deep snowpack like the one covering Utah's mountains "has been followed by a wonderful winter."

With three or four major storms sweeping through before December starts, he said, "That usually says the trend pattern is excellent."


E-mail: bau@desnews.com

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